Wednesday, June 28, 2023
Kind of just running in place today as the Dow fell 74 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving sideways. We had a gap down at the open and then rallied to be positive. After a mid-day sell off the market drifted sideways into the close. The NASDAQ posted a slight gain on the session. There was no upside follow through to yesterdays gains for the S&P 500. The short term technical picture there remains the same. We are still hoping for a light volume rally back to the recent highs to get some SPY July puts. Not sure that the market will cooperate. Inflation data due out on Friday ahead of a long holiday weekend should be the next market mover. Staying patient for now. Gold was off $5 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were lower on the day. The XAU lost 1 3/4, while GDX shed 3/8 on good volume. Perhaps we are seeing some of the end of the month, quarter or first half selling of the gold shares. GDX is now at its 200 day moving average and short term oversold. The potential positive divergence in the daily RSI here did not work out. I was stopped out of the GDX trade from yesterday with a 35% loss. This is totally acceptable as normal losses are part of the game when patterns do not work out. Not a lot of money involved in that trade and the fact that it was managed well is a plus. Now will have to decide whether we want to try it again with the support at the 200 day and the short term oversold condition. Or perhaps we'll just step aside as this idea hasn't worked for quite a while now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today with a mixed market. The low VIX still bodes well for stocks going forward. Which calls into question our idea of trying the SPY July puts if we move higher from here. Never any easy answers to questions in this game. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonight headlines.
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