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Friday, June 02, 2023

The Dow exploded to the upside today as it gained 701 points on good volume. The advance/declines were just shy of 6 to 1 positive. The summation index has turned around and is now moving higher. The zero line there has held for now. The jobs report came in hot with expanding job creation. The other details of the report were a touch weaker. The stock market liked what it saw but the Dow was the leader today. It looks like perhaps the summer rally is starting early this year. The S&P 500 appears to be on its way to the next resistance level at 4300. Short term overbought here with a little room left for the indicators to move higher. The NASDAQ remains overbought as it has been for weeks. It was a good week for stocks. Gold got pounded today as the futures were off thirty bucks. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell a point and GDX lost 5/8. Volume was good to the downside. My GDX June calls are back in the red. The daily candlestick chart here now looks bearish ot at least implying sideways price action. I thought about just selling this position and taking the small loss but the price movement today in the gold shares did not match the magnitude of the drop in gold itself. Still 2 weeks to go here but I'm certainly not sure that this idea will pan out. We got the oversold bounce for GDX this week but todays price action puts a damper on things. GDX is still above the longer term up trend line but we will have to see if that holds next week. Gold itself is in the same situation. Mentally I'm feeling anxious as I probably should have sold out this GDX position for a loss today. But we'll see what happens next week. The VIX continues to drop and closed below the 15 level today. This is bullish for stocks. Short term oversold now but in rallies the VIX stays that way. The market always knows more than we do. Not sure where the liquidity is coming from but I would not advise fighting the up trend. We'll go over the charts this weekend as usual. Asia and Europe closed higher. It looks like I was wrong about the sell the news event regarding the debt ceiling drama. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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