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Tuesday, June 20, 2023

A bit of selling to start the shortened trading week as the Dow fell 245 points on about average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is starting to congest. We did finish off of the worst levels for the session. Despite the two day drop for both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 they still remain short term overbought. Not sure what's next here for stocks but a move back towards the 50 day moving averages would not be out of the question. We've got the Fed chairman speaking for the next two days and perhaps that will provide some market movement. No SPY trades for now as we have just rolled into the July option cycle. Gold fell over $20 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates a bit lower. The XAU dropped 4 2/3, while GDX shed 1 1/4. Volume was good to the downside. The longer term up trend line for GDX is being broken today. The contracting Bollinger bands appear to have worked to the downside for the big move that was anticipated. I had thought that the up trend line would hold and based my recent trades for GDX on that premise. That was wrong if todays break lower continues and we think that it will. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up today and remains short term oversold. If this indicator heads back to its 50 day moving average we should see more downside for stocks. Hasn't happened yet but we'll keep an eye on it. Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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