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Thursday, June 29, 2023

Moving higher for the Dow as it gained 269 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to move back up. The Dow was the leader today as the NASDAQ was flat on the session. The S&P 500 had a decent gain and the short term indicators here are beginning to move back up. We'll see how things go after tomorrows inflation data. Gold was off six bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates spiked up. The XAU was up 1 1/3, while GDX gained 3/8. They both opened lower and closed higher for one day upside reversals. Volume was light. I wrestled with the idea to put in another order for the GDX calls overnight but declined. That now looks like a mistake with GDX holding on to its 200 day moving average on the daily chart. One day doesn't make a trend but the fact that the gold shares rallied when gold didn't is a plus for them. Perhaps the positive RSI diveegence on the daily chart is valid after all. We'll know more in the coming days. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated after trading the GDX calls for some losses and then not trying that idea again when I again felt the time was right. This is always why we say the mental capital is more important than anything else in this game. Had I not focussed on those losing trades perhaps I would have tried the GDX July calls again last night. But the beat goes on. The VIX was up slightly today and that doesn't fit the upside day for most stocks. The Bollinger bands here are beginning to contract which implies something is brewing for the VIX. At such low levels here I can only think that it will be more volatility but we'll wait and see. If so then maybe our thesis of the SPY July puts will work. We are getting a light volume rally in the S&P so far. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll see how the market fares with tomorrows inflation data. End of the month, first half of the year and the last trading day before a long holiday weekend on tap.

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