Friday, June 16, 2023
Finally saw some selling today but it wasn't much on option expiration Friday. The Dow fell 108 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving up. The major averages remain short term overbought. We'll need to see some more selling to relieve that conditon. All in all it was a good week for stocks. However I'm still concerned about the distance from the 50 day moving averages for the major indexes. They have to start to consolidate or move back towards the 50 day as going straight up never ends well. Perhaps today was the start of some corrective activity. Or maybe it was just opton expiration related. We'll know as time moves on. No SPY trades in mind for now as the July option cycle has an extra week in it. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 1/8, while GDX gained over 1/3. Volume was light. I canceled my open order for the GDX July calls as I did not want to hold it over the long weekend. We'll revisit this idea next week. The tightening Bollinger bands for the gold shares imply a decent move coming. However the mid-range short term technical indicators make it difficult to figure out which way things will go. I'm still thinking the move will be up as the longer term trend line that I've spoken of for GDX remains intact. But markets go where thay want and the recent losing trade there has me hesitant. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that doesn't fit a down market. Remaining short term oversold here. Again I'm not sure what to make of the VIX action. It is still in bullish territory though. We got out of the position that we had in BOIL, the natural gas ETF. The gain was 22%. We'll wait for it to return to short term oversold and try it again. It is a 2 times leveraged instrument that I am still learning how to operate. It has worked twice but that doesn't guarantee anything going forward. Monday is a holiday in the US so we'll have an extra day to go over the charts. Both Europe and Asia were on the plus side last night. It's Friday afternonn and time for a break.
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