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Thursday, June 22, 2023

Bouncing back a bit today for the overall market but the Dow posted a loss of 5 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to roll over. The overall market was stronger than the Dow with both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 sporting gains on the day. We did get a signal from the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move within the next two days. We'll see if that pans out tomorrow. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to turn back up. Perhaps we'll get our wish for a light volume rally to the recent highs in order to try the SPY July puts. But that remains to be seen. For now we'll watch and wait. Gold was off twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses once again coming back from the lows of the session. Volume was light. GDX is now short term oversold but we are not yet ready to try the calls here again. There is a possible positive RSI divegence on the daily chart for GDX. However we are going to take a wait and see stance here as well with so much time remaining in the July option cycle. The fundamentals for gold are pretty negative here as well but we reserve the right to change our minds as conditions warrant. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was down today and now is below the 13 level. About as oversold as it gets on the short term indicators. The VIX implies that the rally will go on. Europe and Asia were both down last night. We'll see if we get that big move in stocks tomorrow.

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