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Monday, June 12, 2023

No need to wait on the inflation data as we got a rally to begin option expiration week. The Dow climbed 189 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues higher. The NASDAQ continues to be the leader and that's a plus for the bulls. Short term overbought for the major averages but that's not stopping the rise. Perhaps some short covering involved today as well. The S&P 500 has broken through the 4300 level so we'll just have to see how far things can go. Probably will run things up into the expiration on Friday unless there's some kind of unpleasant surprise looming. Getting pretty far away from the 50 day moving averages for some of the indices. Gold was off five bucks on the futures. The US dollar and interest rates finished little changed. They are at least waiting on tomorrows data. The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional gains on pretty light volume. My GDX June calls remain dead to the world. If the gold shares don't rally tomorrow this trade will be over. GDX is right on the longer term trend line and where it goes from here will tell us a lot. Today was probably the time to buy the gold share calls if that line is going to hold up. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that does not fit with an up market. The short term indicators here have turned higher. Normally that would coincide with a down market so I don't know what is going on here. Does it spell trouble for tomorrow? We'll see. The VIX is far from its 50 day moving average as well. However the market is obviously in rally mode for now. Europe and Asia were up to start the week. We'll see how the market reacts to the inflation data tomorrow.

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