Friday, June 23, 2023
We got a pretty big move on the open to fulfill the McClellan oscillator signal from Wednesday as the Dow fell 300 points at the start. The most watched index finished with a loss of 219 on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving lower. We were hoping for some kind of rally back to the recent highs for the S&P 500 in order to purchase the SPY July puts but that doesn't look like it's going to happen. The NASDAQ was the leader to the downside today and that remains a negative. The short term indicators for the S&P are pointing down and about at mid-range. Still pretty far from the 50 day moving average at 4200 which would be the target for this move lower. We'll remain patient here for now and see how things go next week. Gold was up $5 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dropped a bit. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. Still short term oversold for GDX. The potential positive RSI divergence is still in place here but I'm not sure if I'll try the GDX July calls yet. Plenty of time in the July option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits with a down market. Still pretty oversold though and some distance away from the 50 day moving average. But the VIX does imply higher prices for stocks going forward. Europe and Asia continued lower last night to finish a negative week. Money moved out of stocks around the world this week. We'll see if there is any follow through selling before the end of the month and first half of the year. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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