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Thursday, April 13, 2023

Off we go to the upside as the Dow gained 383 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Producer prices came in tame and it was a rally from the start. The NASDAQ led the way. It appears that prices now will probably run up into option expiration next week. Perhaps 4200 will be in the cards for the S&P 500. It does remain short term overbought but that may not deter things from going higher. The S&P has been overbought for about 3 weeks. Only six days left in the April option cycle and a trade in SPY looks less likely at this point. Gold rallied $30 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were up a bit. The XAU climbed 4 points, while GDX added about a point. Volume was good to the upside as there are no sellers for now. The gold shares remain extremely overbought and now are pretty far from their 50 day moving average. I canceled my open order for the GDX April calls as it was nowhere near to getting filled. It has been quite a move in gold and the gold shares and I missed it. I'm not sure how much longer it can go on but we'll be buyers on any pullback if it can get short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today and closed below the 18 level. It dropped lower out of the recent congestion and that implies higher prices yet to come. Remaining short term oversold here. One possible trade before expiration next week would be the SPY April puts if the RSI on the daily VIX hits 30. It is currently 39 and change. Not sure that it will reach that level but we'll keep an eye on it. Retail sales data out tomorrow and some earnings start to trickle in. So the market will have excuses to move. Asia and Europe were higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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