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Thursday, April 20, 2023

A bit of volatility returned as the Dow fell 110 points on light volume. We opened with a gap to the downside and then moved back up until when there was 2 hours left in the trading day. Then we had a huge sell off only to rebound again in the final half hour. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is starting to congest. The NASDAQ led the way lower. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are finally starting to roll over. They are still overbought but coming off of higher levels. I do not think that this is the beginning of some kind of extended downside correction. But I've been wrong before. Gold rose $7 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates dipped too. The XAU and GDX had minimal slight fractional moves lower on very light volume. I did not try the GDX April calls again with 2 days left in the April option cycle. We are moving out to the May GDX calls for the next possible trade there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits with a down market. The short term indicators here are now coming off of the extreme oversold levels. It doesn't mean that a big decline is in the cards because we are well below the level of 20. I'm still looking for the 4200 level on the S&P 500 before we take a different view of where we're going. Asia was generally higher and Europe was down. We'll see about expiration Friday tomorrow.

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