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Thursday, April 27, 2023

The market exploded to the upside as the Dow soared 524 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. We had a gap up at the open and just kept going. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus. Probably some short covering involved as well after the past two down days. GDP was weaker than expected but earnings came in better than thought. Let me be clear in stating that we are not in the business of predicting what the market is going to do on a day to day basis. That is usually just a 50/50 proposition. However there are times when the numbers and technicals line up in such a way that the odds favor one direction over the other by a wide margin. It doesn't happen often but today was one of those days that under normal market conditions where we could see it coming before it happened. Had we been further along in the May option cycle, the option premiums would have been less and we would have given the SPY calls a shot. Although correct in the direction we can never tell the magnitude of what to expect. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now turned back up. Light volume is a concern though. Inflation data out tomorrow and if it is stronger than expected the market will most likely turn back lower. But we'll see. Gold finished flat on the futures. The US dollar ended the day little changed as well. Interest rates rose. The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume remains light here. My GDX May calls are showing a slight profit. Not sure how long we'll hold on to this one. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated for not having the SPY May calls but what can you do? I'm usually not that good when it comes to the short term trades. The VIX dropped and that fits today price action. The indicators here are now rolling over which implies more gains for stocks. Inflation data out tomorrow should get things going one way or the other. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.

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