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Tuesday, April 04, 2023

Some selling today and that wasn't unexpected as the Dow fell 198 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving up. We were due for some give back and saw some today. We don't think it's the beginning of any kind of sustained downside activity. The S&P 500 does remain short term overbought along with the Dow and the NASDAQ. But as we've said before, in rallies the markets simply stay overbought. We still expect higher prices going forward. Gold took off today and gained almost forty bucks on the futures. The US dollar continued its slide and interest rates were lower. The XAU jumped 4 1/3, while GDX was up over a point. Volume was heavy to the upside. I did place another order for the GDX April calls but then canceled it. There is no doubt that the gold shares are heading higher but I have to at least wait until they pull back before trying to trade them now. Obviously the best opportunities here have passed us by. But with GDX going straight through the 33 level without hesitation tells us there is more room to run. We will look to try the calls on a pullback to 33. The short term indicators here are extremely overbought. GDX is also moving pretty far away from its 50 day moving average. So trying the calls here may not be the best move in the world but the momentum is strong. We'll try and figure things out as we move forward. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but finished well off the highs of the session. It remains short term oversold but the daily candlestick chart appears to look like it wants to go lower. Still below the 20 level here. We saw selling in the market today and the question is whether it will be the start of some actual downside or just a sideways pause to take a breather. I'm inclined to believe the latter. Asia was generally higher and Europe mixed overnight. Halfway through the trading week and we'll see how it goes tomorrow.

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