Thursday, April 06, 2023
Just hanging around before a long weekend as the Dow rose a couple of points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is still moving up. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 were higher today as well. They also both remain short term overbought. Waiting on tomorrows jobs report and there isn't much else to say but that. We will just have to wait and see how it goes on Monday morning. Gold was off a dozen on the futures today. The US dollar finished little changed as did interest rates. It is a waiting game here as well. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on pretty light volume. The overbought extremes continue for the gold shares. We still are hoping for some type of pullback during the April option cycle here but if not we'll move on. All the players should be back at their desks on Monday. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is getting to support at the 18 level. If it can get through there the rally will have even more legs. Still remaining very short term oversold on the VIX but that can last for a while in uptrends. My guess remains that the S&P will make it up to 4200. Our open order for the natural gas ETF BOIL was filled today. This is an idea that we plan on holding for less than a year. If and when we see a move higher and the indicators get overbought, we'll be out. However this isn't a fast moving instrument and the possibility of holding on for months isn't out of the question. It could be a buy in the spring, sell in the winter kind of deal. We'll be keeping an eye on it and be ready to take the loss if it simply continues to drop. It is our first endeavor with a leveraged ETF so we'll see. Europe was up and Asia mixed overnight. A long weekend is upon us. We'll go over the charts, enjoy the extra day off and get ready for next week.
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