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Monday, April 10, 2023

An early sell off was met with buying for the rest of the session as the Dow gained 101 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving to the upside. We did get a signal on Friday from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two days. We'll see if that pans out tomorrow. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 finished about where thay started. Both remain short term overbought. Waiting on the inflation data due out on Wednesday and Thursday. Earnings season will begin on Friday with some of the major banks. So there will be plenty of reasons for stocks to move around this week. We still like the market to progress higher and look for 4200 on the S&P. Gold dropped $20 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up. The XAU fell 1 1/3, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was light. GDX remains short term overbought. We're still considering the GDX April calls but are hesitiant to put on that trade due to the sustained overbought condition. If GDX makes it back to the 33 level we may give the calls a shot. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher which doesn't fit with an up or sideways market day which we saw today. Still pretty oversold on a daily bais here. However the daily candlestcik chart here still looks like it implies lower readings for the VIX going forward. Never any easy going in this game. Less than 2 weeks now left in the April option cycle. We will be looking to put on some type of trade either in SPY or GDX. Most of the foreign markets were still on holiday last night. What were open finished mixed. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

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