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Wednesday, April 19, 2023

It was still just another day of hanging around as the market opened lower, made it all the way back and then some only to fall back again in the final half hour. The Dow fell 79 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues up. Most of the major indexes finished little changed. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought as if it were in an endless loop. So far option expiration week has been a big yawn. I'm expecting higher prices as we have yet to reach the target of 4200 on the S&P. Volatility is low and the trading is lackluster. Gold was off a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher along with interest rates. The XAU was off 2 7/8, while GDX shed 1/2. Volume was a bit above average. I did place another order for the GDX April calls but it wasn't filled. I adjusted it a couple of times during the day because I thought that this idea still might work. However the short term indicators on the daily chart for GDX have rolled over and are not yet oversold. But we have shorter time frames that we look at and some of those are indicating a bounce possible there in the next 2 days. Perhaps if GDX is lower on the open we'll try the calls for a very short term trade. But the risk may not be worth the reward. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX is still lower today and remains extremely short term oversold. The RSI is around 34 1/2. We are not going to be able to base a trade on that in the April option timeframe. The premiums for May will be inflated with so much time remaining there. So we may just have to pass on the trade based on the RSI for the VIX. Looks like we'll be remaining on the sidelines for now. Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

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