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Friday, April 28, 2023

Adding to yesterdays stellar gains as the Dow was up 272 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. Not many sellers on the last day of the month as the S&P 500 closed at the highest level since the beginning of February. The short term indicators here still have room to run higher so perhaps we'll finally make it to 4200. We'll have the Fed to deal with next week and the employment report. But right now it looks like we're at the start of a rally. Gold finished flat again on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates fell. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on the continued light volume. My GDX May calls are now showing a small loss. GDX remains short term oversold so there's still a chance that this trade will work. Unless of course it just trends lower from here and stays oversold. That's certainly a possibility. We'll see how it goes next week. Mentally I'm feeling a bit mixed since in retrospect we chose the wrong trade between the gold shares and the S&P. However you have to try and make the best decisions with the information that you have in front of you at the time. Always moving forward is another way to try and stay sane in this difficult game. The VIX was lower again and closed below 15. Getting short term oversold but not completely there yet. The lack of volatility and the low VIX reading is another reason why we think that this rally will have legs despite the overall low volume. Perhaps we'll get some beginning of the month money flows starting on Monday. We'll be going over the charts this weekend as usual. Europe and Asia finished the week with gains. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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