Monday, April 03, 2023
A mixed bag to start the week but the Dow gained 327 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ posted a loss along with the TRAN. The S&P 500 was up and the technical condition there remains the same. Short term overbought. Plenty of data out this week with Fridays jobs report the most anticipated. However Friday is also a holiday so we will have to wait out the long weekend to see the market response. For now the trend is up until further notice. We still believe any decline can be bought successfully. Gold was up $15 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 2 1/4, while GDX gained 3/4. Volume was good. The gold shares continue to plow higher despite being overbought for weeks. We still would like to try the GDX April calls but haven't taken the chance. It is hard to get long a trade when it is already overbought but in rallies that condition just keeps on going. It will end at some point and sometimes I get the feeling that point will be the moment you put on the call trade. However money continues to find a home in gold and I don't see anything to change that narrative right now. GDX is at some resistance now at the 33 level so perhaps we'll get a pause to try the April calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today and that fits with most of the market being up. Very short term oversold now so I would expect to see some type of decline in stocks this week. Not anything that would change the overall bullish scenario though. We'll see. Asia and Europe were higher to start the week with the exception of the DAX. We are considering a trade in natural gas as it has been hammered down to levels that we think are worth taking a risk on the long side. We are looking at a leveraged instrument, BOIL, which is an ETF not an option. We do have an order in for it if the price gets down to where we'd like to purchase. I haven't traded this product before but it does appear to have enough liquidity to give it a try. Unlike the option trades, there are not deadlines for selling it once purchased. However for us this is a trading vehicle and not something to be held on to for more than a year. We'll be keeping an eye on it and let you know if our order gets filled. As always we'll keep watch on tonights trading activity.
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