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Tuesday, April 11, 2023

Mixed is the best way to descibe todays price action although things were looking pretty positive until the final half hour. The Dow gained 98 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. We were looking at gains all around the stock indices but sellers took over in the final half hour. The NASDAQ posted a loss and the S&P finished little changed.. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. I still think that we'll get to 4200 on the S&P before we see the end of this rally but I could be wrong. Tomorrows inflation data should prvide the catalyst one way or the other. Not sure exactly what to expect there. We're still looking for some kind of SPY trade before option expiration next week. Gold was back up $15 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates held steady. The XAU gained 1 2/3, while GDX added 5/8. Volume was light for what we've seen here lately. I may put in an order overnight for the GDX April calls in case we get a sell off early in the morning. GDX remains short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a touch today, remains short term oversold and I don't know what to expect here next. Still below the 20 level and that's a plus for the bulls. Where we go next will depend on the reaction to tomorrows data. Europe and Asia finished higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments and see what the inflation data has in store for us tomorrow.

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