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Wednesday, April 12, 2023

It was another back and forth session as the Dow dropped 38 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is moving up. We waited for the inflation data to show up and there were no surprises. Producer prices out tomorrow. The NASDAQ was the leader heading lower. The short term indicators there have now rolled over. Despite todays drop the S&P 500 remains short term overbought. It has been traveling sideways for a week and a half. We would like to try a SPY trade in the April option cycle but have yet to receive a decent signal one way or the other. I'll try not to press things here just for the sake of making a trade. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates remained steady. The XAU rose 1 1/4, while GDX added 1/3. Volume was light. I did place an open order overnight for the GDX April calls. It wasn't filled and it will take some decline in GDX for that to happen. I'm leaving the order out there for now. GDX continues to be short term overbought and has been for over 4 weeks. This won't last forever. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished about where it started today. It's still below the 20 level and in a sideways channel. Also still short term oversold. I don't know what to expect here next. Stocks seem to still be waiting for some kind of catalyst to get them going up or down. I'm not sure what that would be or where it will come from. We'll stick with trying some kind of gold share call trade for now as money continues to find a home there. Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of the Hang Seng. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

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