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Tuesday, March 21, 2023

More upside as we wait for the Fed as the Dow climbed 316 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn around again, this time at the zero line. We expect the market to hold in here. The S&P 500 got through and closed above the short term down trend line that was in place. It did stop just below the 50 day moving average though. Our posture is that the market got sold out with all the bad news recently. Combine that with the extreme oversold readings that we saw on some indicators and it's a recipe for higher prices. Now that could all change tomorrow on the reaction to whatever the Fed does but we think that higher prices are in the markets future. The short term indicators for the S&P are pointing up and have room to move higher. If the summation index turns back up, that is all the evidence that you need. So we'll see where we go from here. Gold got clobbered today as the futures shed $40. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates rose. The XAU lost 4 1/8, while GDX dropped 1 1/8. Volume was good to the downside. Gold and the gold shares now share the same bearish candlestick pattern on their daily charts which implies lower prices to come. Either the recent break out on the long term chart for gold was false or what we are seeing now is the snapback to that breakout. With the daily chart for the gold shares in a bearish configuration, I'm inclined to think we just saw a false breakout despite the good volume. We'll know more by the end of the week but I am still interested in the GDX April calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators are trending down. This seems to imply higher stock prices going forward. Still above the 20 level here. The market is acting as though all the banking problems are behind us and it's full steam ahead. We'll only know as time goes on. Now it is just a matter of getting through whatever the Fed has in store for us and the market reaction to that. Should be interesting to say the least. Europe and Asia were up with the exception of Japan. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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