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Monday, March 13, 2023

Volatility is the name of the game here as various markets are having huge moves as they worry about threats to the US banking system. The Dow fell 90 points on very heavy volume. The Dow rallied hard in the overnight market and then couldn't hold on to the gains. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The McClellan oscillator is below minus 300. We are getting blown out to the downside. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. The NASDAQ did manage to post a gain so maybe there is some hope for the bulls. We'll get the CPI report tomorrow and that will certainly have an impact early on. Not sure what to expect there but if it comes in hot expect more selling. However a weaker print there could send us into an oversold bounce. Or some news could come out of nowhere to move things as we are in a headline driven market at the moment. Gold soared as the futures gained fifty bucks. The US dollar was lower and interest rates had huge drops in a flight to safety frenzy. The XAU jumped 6 1/3, while GDX was up by 1 7/8. Volume was incredibly strong. The potential positive RSI divergence for GDX was validated. Well at least technical analysis still works. My GDX March calls had their own March miracle as they now show an actual profit. Of course it took the second largest bank failure in US history to make that happen. Probably should have just sold them today but I'll wait on the inflation data tomorrow to figure out what to do. The short term technical indicators for GDX have now turned up and they do have room to go higher. Price and volume moving in tandem is a positive event. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher and again finished well below its highest levels of the day. Getting short term overbought here but not there just yet. Well above the 20 level as volatility rules the markets for now. Not sure where the markets go from here but some kind of bounce is not out of the question. Markets know things that we don't and the price action in some of the instruments in the past couple of sessions is completely out of the ordinary. We can only wonder why for now. Caution is advised. Asia was mixed and Europe down to begin the week overseas. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

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