Friday, March 17, 2023
Sellers returned for option expiration as the Dow fell 384 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. Confidence in the US banking system is wavering despite the manuvers of government officials. In my mind it will all be sorted out but that doesn't mean that we won't see any more panic. I still think that the market is trying to form some kind of bottom here but I've been wrong before. I don't see the NASDAQ falling apart as usual during rough declines so I'm inclined to not think the worst here. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 remain mid-range. There is a short term down trend line in effect there though. We'll get the Fed announcement next week and that should be quite a volatile session. But that's not until Wednesday which seems pretty far from here. Gold exploded to the upside as the futures climbed sixty bucks today. Fear has taken over as the flight to safety trade is front and center. The US dollar dropped along with interest rates. The XAU rallied 5 3/4, while GDX was up 1 3/8. Volume was extremely heavy. There is a down trend line for GDX at the 31 level that's a year old. We are almost there but I'd expect things to stall before getting through there. Hopefully that will give us another chance at the GDX calls for April. Gold itself has now closed above a down trend line that had been in effect for over 2 years. Price and volume as always remain the keys and gold has now proven to be the choice of traders at least for now. The gold shares are short term overbought but may just stay that way. GDX may not get back to oversold for a while. We'll consider what plan to take over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was back up today as it switches back and forth each session. Still mid-range for the short term indicators here. Not sure where things go next for the VIX here. Oversold now for most of the major indices but not the NASDAQ. Could it be that tech stocks are now considered a flight to safety as well? If they roll over here it will get ugly and the zero line on the summation index will be violated. That's the worst case scenario. Will the Fed do something on Wednesday to abate the fear? Well, stay tuned. Interesting times. We'll have plenty to ponder over this particular weekend. I'll be checking the charts as usual. Asia up and Europe down to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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