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Friday, March 03, 2023

Stocks took off to the upside today as the Dow gained 387 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but may be trying to turn around here. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 was up sharply and is now above its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here have turned back up and have plenty of room to move higher. It appears that we have started some type of rally here but we'll have to see just how long it lasts and how far it goes. We will know for sure once the summation index turns back up. Hasn't happened yet but it does have a chance after the past two positive sessions. Gold rallied as well with the futures up twenty bucks. The US dollar was lower and so were interest rates. The XAU was up almost 2 points, while GDX added nearly 1/2. Volume was light here though as it looks more like sellers have disappeared vs. buyers showing up in force. We would have liked to see better gains in the gold shares considering the move in gold itself. The short term indicators for GDX are moving up and still have room to go. My GDX March calls are showing a small profit. The recent rise for GDX hasn't exactly been robust so I'm not exactly sure how much I trust in prices for the gold shares moving much higher from here in the near term. I'll have to decide what to do with this trade over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that goes along with a good day for stocks. The short term indicators here are getting oversold but not completely so. It was a good week for the bulls. Next week we've got the Fed chairman speaking for a couple of days plus the employment report. So we'll have to see if this upswing can continue. We'll be going over the charts as usual this weekend to try and figure out what to do next. Europe and Asia were higher as well to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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