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Monday, March 20, 2023

Trying to stabalize here for Fed week as the Dow gained 382 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving down and has reached the zero line. It's the moment of truth for this indicator. Either the market turns around here or it goes into freefall. My guess is that we'll start to head higher but nobody knows for sure. The NASDAQ was the laggard today. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 remain as mid-range. The major stock indices are very mixed on a technical basis. Some are short term overbought, some oversold and the rest stuck in the middle. We are also in a headline driven environment which is tough to predict. Also just rolled into the April option cycle with an extra week on the options. So we have our work cut out for us. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures as money continues to pour in here. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU rose 1 3/4, while GDX was up 1/2. Volume was good. Remaining short term overbought on the gold shares. I am trying to wait for some kind of pullback before attempting the GDX April calls. GDX is right at the short term down trend line at 31. We'll probably wait for golds reaction to the Fed on Wednesday before doing anything but who knows? Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today as it continues the recent pattern of being up one day and down the next. So the market should be down tomorrow if that holds. Mid-range on the short term technical indicators here. Not sure what's next for the VIX. I suppose it's just a Fed waiting game for now unless another bank fails tomorrow. Asia was lower and Europe higher to begin the trading week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

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