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Wednesday, March 15, 2023

Just another wild day on Wall street as the Dow fell 280 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index continues to move lower and is approaching the zero line. If the summation index goes through there we'll really see things fall apart. Not sure that will happen though. Inflation data was weaker than expected and retail sales were negative. We did come up from the worst levels on the day and the NASDAQ actually posted a slight gain. The S&P 500 also came back from its lows. The short term indicators here have curled back over to the downside. We do have one indicator that is pointing to buying before the Friday expiration. It is roughly projecting the S&P to close around 3950 by Friday afternoon. Anything is possible in this game. Perhaps I'll give the SPY March calls a chance with only two days left but we'll see. My track record on the short term trades is pretty poor. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures but did fall back from the best levels on the session. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dropped. The XAU was off 1/2, while GDX finished flat. Volume remains solid here. The gold shares fell back from early gains. I did sell the GDX March call trade but it wasn't a good job there. I should have dumped them early but did not. The management of this trade was terrible but I was lucky that it didn't end up a huge loss. I would have like to have held on to it for another day but took what I could get. The gain was 70%. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are overbought so perhaps it is due for a rest. Plenty of room to run on the weekly indicators though. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was higher again as this indicator has had a volatile last five days. The short term technical indicators here have turned back up. Seems like I'm still having a hard time figuring out the VIX. Just a few more economic reports this week but the main ones have already been digested. Oversold for the major averages but in declines they simply stay that way. Yesterdays price action just turned out to be an oversold bounce. Asia higher and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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