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Wednesday, March 22, 2023

We've got the Fed decision out of the way but after briefly rising on the news of a 1/4 point hike the market sank. The Dow fell 530 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower after trying to turn itself around at the zero line. Will things now just fall apart as usual at the zero line? We'll know by the close on Friday but I'm wondering if today was just a one day wonder. There sure is plenty of bearishness around. But the market will let us know in the coming days. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are back to mid-range and rolling over. So you certainly could make a bearish case going forward. The Russell 2000 has been oversold for weeks and just printed a long dark candle on its daily chart. I suppose if the tech sector starts to sell off we could see another leg down for the S&P. Hasn't happened yet. Gold rallied $30 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates dropped for the bond market. Looks like the flight to safety trade is still alive with the action in gold and bonds. The XAU rose 1 3/4, while GDX was up 1/2. Volume was good. I did place an order overnight for the GDX April calls but it wasn't filled. GDX is short term overbought on some of its indicators and I don't usually like to trade the calls in that situation. Not to mention the bearish candlestick pattern on the daily chart. I do think however that we are in a very precarious market environment in which gold and gold shares could remain overbought for an extended period. I could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today but not as much as a down 500 market would indicate. Not sure what happens next with the VIX although it looks like a hammer on the daily candlestick chart here. That would imply lower prices and more volatility tomorrow. We'll see. So now with the Fed out of the way, what's next? A couple of economic reports left to see this week but nothing major. I guess we'll see if we get any follow through selling tomorrow. Europe and Asia were higher last night. We'll see if they mirror the US market lower overnight.

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