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Tuesday, March 28, 2023

Hanging around is how I'd describe things as the Dow lost 37 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up again. Whether or not it's successful will determine the markets direction. I'm still a believer that we are going to head higher. The NASDAQ led the way down today but the losses were small. Volatility is muted at the moment. Not sure if the market is on spring break or if traders are just waiting for March to end. The technical picture for the S&P is more short term overbought but not excessively so. We're just waiting for a catalyst one way or the other. Perhaps Fridays inflation report will do the trick. Gold bounced back twenty bucks today on the futures. The US dollar continues lower and interest rates were up a bit. The XAU gained 3 points, while GDX added 3/4. Volume was average. Seems like that there is no stopping the gold shares. I do have another open order out there for the April GDX calls but it will take some decline in GDX to get filled. Still short term overbought on GDX and staying that way. Perhaps we'll get a move back towards the break out from the down trend line at 31. Or not. Money continues to flow into gold and the gold shares and I don't see any reason to think that it will stop anytime soon. But it will eventually. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and it remains short term oversold. It did close below 20. It looks like it wants to go lower which would support higher stock prices. However right now we will have to remain patient and wait for some kind of trading set-up one way or the other. Option premiums remain elevated with plenty of time left for the April option cycle. Asia and Europe were positive last night. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

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