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Thursday, March 09, 2023

The market got clobbered ahead of tomorrows employment report as the Dow fell 543 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. The NASDAQ was the leader today and that is not a good sign for the bulls. It is as if the market knows ahead of time that the jobs numbers will not be favorable. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled back into oversold territory. The S&P is trying to hold on to its 200 day moving average. Stock markets have the feel of wanting to keep going lower here. The negative candlestick pattern on the S&P daily chart seems to be playing itself out. The lower summation index is telling the story. But we'll see what happens tomorrow. Gold rallied a bit as the futures rose around $15. That couldn't get the gold shares going as both the XAU and GDX had fractional losses again. Volume was average. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The potential positive RSI divergence for the gold shares is still in place. So is my losing GDX March call trade. Probably dump it tomorrow unless we see some extraordinary upside in GDX. The gold shares followed the market lower today despite the rise in gold itself. I should have been out of this idea long ago. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX jumped today and closed above 20. The short term technical indicators here have turned up with a vengeance. Not sure what it means but volatility has returned for now. There is no good reason to be holding calls right now but here I am. Europe and Asia were mostly lower again last night and I'd expect more of the same to finish the week. We'll get the market reaction to the jobs report and close out the trading week tomorrow.

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