Tuesday, March 14, 2023
A bounce showed up today as the Dow gained 336 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index continues lower. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow. Data from inflation came in where expected so their were no surprises. We had gotten pretty oversold on some of the techncial indicators so an up day was due. Where we go from here is the question. A one day wonder or perhaps the beginning of a meaningful bottom? Of course we won't know until some more time passes. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up. We'll have to see if we get any follow through buying tomorrow. Producer prices along with retail sales will be the early focus. Not exactly sure what to expect. Gold dropped $9 on the futures. Some decline for the precious metal was not out of the question considering that it's come so far so fast. The US dollar ended little changed and interest rates rose. The XAU added 1 1/8, while GDX rose 1/4. Volume was average. Somehow I'm still holding on to the GDX March calls with only 3 days to go. Not completely short term overbought here yet and my target for GDX is 30 this week. Very risky to hold on though as a drop in the gold shares would wipe out whatever profit is still left in this trade. We'll see how it goes tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators have now rolled over. The daily candlestick chart here looks like it implies lower readings on the VIX and therefore higher stock prices going forward. Still above the 20 level though. One day doesn't make a trend but at least the market stopped going down for a day. Much of the gains came in the final hour and that's usually a bullish development. But tomorrow is another day. Asia was down and Europe up overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.
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