Thursday, March 23, 2023
It was one of those crazy sessions today as the Dow was up almost 500 points early only to give it all back and go negative with about an hour to go. Buyers then stepped in as it gained 75 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. The summation index has made it down through the zero line but we really haven't fallen apart yet. I'm still guessing that things will hold up here. The NASDAQ is still outperforming the major averages and that's a plus. If it happens to roll over here, then we'll see some carnage. Again, I don't think that will be the case. There is just too much bearish sentiment at the moment. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are stuck at mid-range. Whichever way they go will determine the markets near term direction. One thing that's obvious is the pick up in volatility which is generally a negative sign for the market. I don't have any SPY trades that I'm considering right now. Gold rallied again as the futures were up almost fifty bucks. The US dollar was up a bit and interest rates continued to drop. The XAU gained 2 1/3, while GDX added 3/4. Volume was good. GDX has just broken through the short term down trend line at 31. It now appears that the drop earlier this week in gold was a snapback to the breakout from the long term resistance because it has taken off ever since. The bearish candlestick pattern on the daily charts of both gold and the gold shares did not pan out. We will be buyers of the GDX April calls if we get some weakness in the coming days. Money is flocking to gold and you cannot ignore that. It appears new all time highs for the precious metal will be happening soon. I do not like to chase moves but will make an exception this time around. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was just a bit higher today after bouncing all around. I can't seem to figure this indicator out lately. Still above the 20 level here. It has been a pretty volatile week for the stock indices so far but the S&P 500 is just about where it started. We'll have to see where we finish tomorrow. Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower overnight. We'll see what Friday has in store for us.
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