Friday, March 24, 2023
A one day reversal to the upside to close out the week as the Dow gained 132 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues down. It has now passed through the zero line but we aren't seeing a market collapse. That is telling me that things should turn around here and head higher. When the technical conditions are present for something to happen and it doesn't, that tells you something too. The fact that we are just hanging around here and not dropping says higher prices are in the future. Markets that drop simply go down, they don't meander around as we have despite the volatility. Most of the short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 remain stuck at mid-range. Still waiting for them to turn one way or the other. The NASDAQ did lag today. We'll think about the SPY April calls over the weekend. Gold dropped $15 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished little changed. The XAU rose 1 3/8, while GDX added 1/4. Volume remains good here. Gold lower and the gold shares higher is a positive sign. The gold shares remain short term overbought. I'm still considering the GDX April calls if we get some type of pullback. However if the overall market does start to rally, the flight to safety trade will wane. GDX did close above the down trend line that had been in place for the past year. There is a potential negative RSI divergence on the daily gold chart which we will keep an eye on. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. The daily candlestick chart here looks like it implies a lower VIX which would in turn lead to higher stock prices. But I'm not going to say that is going to happen next here. I haven't been able to figure out the VIX for quite a while. So I'll keep an eye on it but look for clues elsewhere as to where we are going. As I've already said, I think stock prices are moving higher from here. We'll go over all the charts this weekend as usual. Europe and Asia were both lower on Friday to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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