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Thursday, March 16, 2023

Back to the upside today as the Dow climbed 372 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. Volatility is the rule these days with big moves in both directions. My thinking here is that the market is trying to put in some kind of bottom. Once again the NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus for the bulls. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are already back at mid-range. I did not attempt the SPY March calls today and that turned out to be another mistake. There was plenty of time early in the trading day to purchase them but I did not take the risk. After about an hour after the open the market started to rise and did not look back. Missed money is better than lost money so they say. But it sure doesn't feel that way. We'll be looking into the April option cycle going forward. Gold was off $7 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates rose. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on good volume. They both came back from the lows on the session. I still like the gold share calls looking out from here but would like to wait for them to get oversold again. We are looking at both the April and May options there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was back down today and once again the daily candlestick chart here looks like it wants to go lower. The short term indicators are mid-range and have turned down. My guess again would be that the VIX declines and stocks go up but I thought that a couple of days ago too. The VIX remains above the 20 level. We may be waiting for the next bank implosion before heading lower but todays jump in stocks seems to say otherwise. Or maybe today was just some expiration related price action. We will only know for sure as time goes on. I'm thinking that things will turn higher here and that the summation index will not break down through the zero line. That's my best guess at the moment. Asia was down and Europe up overnight. We'll see how option expiration goes tomorrow.

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