More of the same today as the Dow fell 102 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is beginning to move sideways. Nothing new from the Fed chairman today with more talk tomorrow. It's the first day of summer and the market is acting like it as we appear to be going nowhere fast. The NASDAQ led the way down and that's a minus overall. We are now looking at the SPY July puts but will wait for some kind of move back to the recent highs to try that idea. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 continue to curl down. No rush to put on a trade here as there is plenty of time in the July option cycle. Stock markets were overdue for a pause and we are getting one now. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was down and interest rates finished little changed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. Gold and the gold shares did come up from the worst levels on the session. Have they hammered out a bottom here? That remains to be seen. We'll watch and wait at this juncture. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that doesn't fit with a down market. Very short term oversold here so I simply don't know what to expect next from this indicator. It is in bullish territory though. After a nice run higher it seems as though the bulls are taking a break here. Ideally we'd like to see a move back towards the recent highs on light volume so we can attempt the SPY puts. Markets rarely copperate. Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on tonights market action.

A bit of selling to start the shortened trading week as the Dow fell 245 points on about average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is starting to congest. We did finish off of the worst levels for the session. Despite the two day drop for both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 they still remain short term overbought. Not sure what's next here for stocks but a move back towards the 50 day moving averages would not be out of the question. We've got the Fed chairman speaking for the next two days and perhaps that will provide some market movement. No SPY trades for now as we have just rolled into the July option cycle. Gold fell over $20 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates a bit lower. The XAU dropped 4 2/3, while GDX shed 1 1/4. Volume was good to the downside. The longer term up trend line for GDX is being broken today. The contracting Bollinger bands appear to have worked to the downside for the big move that was anticipated. I had thought that the up trend line would hold and based my recent trades for GDX on that premise. That was wrong if todays break lower continues and we think that it will. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up today and remains short term oversold. If this indicator heads back to its 50 day moving average we should see more downside for stocks. Hasn't happened yet but we'll keep an eye on it. Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Finally saw some selling today but it wasn't much on option expiration Friday. The Dow fell 108 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving up. The major averages remain short term overbought. We'll need to see some more selling to relieve that conditon. All in all it was a good week for stocks. However I'm still concerned about the distance from the 50 day moving averages for the major indexes. They have to start to consolidate or move back towards the 50 day as going straight up never ends well. Perhaps today was the start of some corrective activity. Or maybe it was just opton expiration related. We'll know as time moves on. No SPY trades in mind for now as the July option cycle has an extra week in it. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 1/8, while GDX gained over 1/3. Volume was light. I canceled my open order for the GDX July calls as I did not want to hold it over the long weekend. We'll revisit this idea next week. The tightening Bollinger bands for the gold shares imply a decent move coming. However the mid-range short term technical indicators make it difficult to figure out which way things will go. I'm still thinking the move will be up as the longer term trend line that I've spoken of for GDX remains intact. But markets go where thay want and the recent losing trade there has me hesitant. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that doesn't fit a down market. Remaining short term oversold here. Again I'm not sure what to make of the VIX action. It is still in bullish territory though. We got out of the position that we had in BOIL, the natural gas ETF. The gain was 22%. We'll wait for it to return to short term oversold and try it again. It is a 2 times leveraged instrument that I am still learning how to operate. It has worked twice but that doesn't guarantee anything going forward. Monday is a holiday in the US so we'll have an extra day to go over the charts. Both Europe and Asia were on the plus side last night. It's Friday afternonn and time for a break.

The rally lives on as the Dow climbed 428 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. All the major stock averages posted gains as sellers have disappeared. Getting overbought to the extreme for some of the indices that are straight lines going up. Like I've said before we are getting too far from the 50 day moving averages. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 fit that description. It appears our guess of the indices running up into option expiration was correct. But this cannot last forever and some type of drop or consolidation is in the cards going forward. We'll enjoy the ride while it lasts. Gold was up a buck on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. The Bollinger bands on the GDX daily chart are starting to converge implying a big move is coming. Which way is the question. That longer term up trend line for GDX remains intact. The short term indicators remain mid-range though. I did put in another order for the GDX July calls today. For some reason I still believe that the gold shares will hold up here and rally. Am I simply a glutton for punishment? No. As long as the up trend line in place from last October for GDX remains valid I have to think that prices will rise from it. If that line gets broken then we will forget about the calls. I am however concerned that the US dollar dropped hard this week and gold did not rally. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today despite a huge rally for stocks. That isn't the usual relationship. Not sure what that's all about. The VIX remains short term oversold but in an area that favors higher prices going forward. Markets can and do sometimes remain overbought for extended periods. It appears that we are in such period right now. Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower overnight. We've got expiration Friday tomorrow ahead of a long weekend. We'll see how it goes.

We had some selling today despite better than expected inflation numbers and no real surprises from the Fed. The Dow fell 232 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving up. We did get some volatility after the Fed announcement as the market moved down and up. But by the time the day was finished it was a mixed bag. The NASDAQ remains the leader and posted a gain on the day. The S&P 500 finished slightly higher. The major stock indexes remain short term overbought and due for a pause. The S&P is getting pretty far from its 50 day moving average. Even if we do see some selling or sideways movement, the trend is up. Not sure where the liquidity is coming from but buyers are in charge. Only a couple of trading days left before a long weekend in the US. I guess we'll see how far things can go into option expiration Friday. Gold finished flat on the day. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were mixed. The XAU and GDX finished little changed on light volume. They also bounced back and forth during the session but the result was right where we left yesterday. No interest in the gold shares for now but the longer term up trend line for GDX does remain intact. I am thinking about the GDX July calls but after the recent losing trade in GDX I'm also looking elsewhere. The fact that the up trend line from last October is still in place to me is a plus. But that hasn't translated into a profitable trade for me yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is below the 14 level. Still short term oversold but the VIX is in positive territory for this indicator overall. It is another reason to stay in the bullish camp for now. Retail sales data out tomorrow and that could be a market mover. I will probably stay on the sidelines and wait for the July option cycle to make the next trade. We'll see. Europe was up and Asia mixed overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Inflation data came in where expected and the market took off to the upside as the Dow gained 146 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way. Overbought and extended here but the market keeps moving up. I'm not sure how much longer this can go on. It's starting to appear as though we are going straight up and that never ends well. Overdue now for at least a pause. We get the Fed and producer prices tomorrow so we'll see how that goes. The positive expiration week bias is in effect for now. The technical conditon for the major indices remains the same. Overbought and staying that way. Gold fell $13 on the futures as the inflation data was a non event here. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were up. After a brief pop at the open the gold shares lost ground again. Both the XAU and GDX were off 1/3 on light volume. I dumped the GDX June calls for a 95% loss as this trade was dead and needed a miracle to turn around. Poorly managed once again plus costly. Although the longer term trend line for GDX remains intact, the gold shares haven't been acting good for a while. The short term indicators for GDX have turned back down again but they've been going back and forth since the month began. Not sure what to do here next but I did consider rolling into the GDX July calls. We'll have to see if the weekly up trend line holds the rest of this week. Mentally I'm feeling a bit down as the losing trade weighs on the mental capital. However win or lose you've always got to keep moving in this game. There is no time to feel sorry for yourself or lament. Just as there is no time for celebrations and pats on the back. The markets just keep going. The VIX was lower today and that fits an up market. Still short term oversold here but not at an extreme. I don't know what's next in store for the VIX. There shouldn't be any surprises from the Fed tomorrow and it is already probably baked into the market. Could be a sell the news event but we'll see. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

No need to wait on the inflation data as we got a rally to begin option expiration week. The Dow climbed 189 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues higher. The NASDAQ continues to be the leader and that's a plus for the bulls. Short term overbought for the major averages but that's not stopping the rise. Perhaps some short covering involved today as well. The S&P 500 has broken through the 4300 level so we'll just have to see how far things can go. Probably will run things up into the expiration on Friday unless there's some kind of unpleasant surprise looming. Getting pretty far away from the 50 day moving averages for some of the indices. Gold was off five bucks on the futures. The US dollar and interest rates finished little changed. They are at least waiting on tomorrows data. The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional gains on pretty light volume. My GDX June calls remain dead to the world. If the gold shares don't rally tomorrow this trade will be over. GDX is right on the longer term trend line and where it goes from here will tell us a lot. Today was probably the time to buy the gold share calls if that line is going to hold up. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that does not fit with an up market. The short term indicators here have turned higher. Normally that would coincide with a down market so I don't know what is going on here. Does it spell trouble for tomorrow? We'll see. The VIX is far from its 50 day moving average as well. However the market is obviously in rally mode for now. Europe and Asia were up to start the week. We'll see how the market reacts to the inflation data tomorrow.

Marking time is what we're doing here as the Dow rose 43 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues up. The market is just hanging around until next weeks data and Fed meeting happen. The technical conditions for the major averages remain the same. We don't know what next week will bring but we should at least get some price movenment one way or the other in a big way. So for now we will simply have to wait. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up. The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX lost almost 1/2. Volume was very light. My GDX June calls are dead, as they are so far out of the money the most we can hope for is a cut the loss rally on the data next week. The short term technicals for GDX remain at mid-range. The longer term up trend line for GDX remains intact for now and that is about the only thing it has going for it at the moment. The line will either be broken next week or we'll get some kind of decent bounce up from it. Once again it's a waiting game which isn't the best scenario when trading options. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up a touch today but is still short term oversold. It's still pretty far off from its 50 day moving average. So here we are. The weekend is upon us with a losing trade in hand. Only a good move higher in the gold shares next week will prevent another unacceptable losing trade. We'll go over the charts this weekend but all we can do is wait. Even if the GDX June call trade makes a comeback it still wasn't managed properly. Asia was higher and Europe lower to close the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Moving higher today as the Dow rose 168 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues higher. Now the short term indicators on the NASDAQ are trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ was the leader to the upside today and that's a plus. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 remain short term overbought. It looks like the near term rally has legs for now. But the market is still waiting on inflation data and the Fed next week. Gold bounced back as the long term up trend line continues to hold. The precious metal futures were up twenty bucks. The US dollar was down and interest rates were a bit lower. The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX was up 1/2. Volume was light. My GDX June calls are still losers but I may continue to hold them into the Fed meeting as long as the longer term up trend line here isn't violated. Risky to be sure with only 6 days left in the June option cycle. The short term indicators for GDX are mid-range and trying to move higher. However we would have liked to see a better move up for GDX during the session considering the positive action today in gold and silver. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX is still moving lower and remains short term oversold. Can it stay that way until option expiration next Friday? Stay tuned. Europe and Asia finished mixed overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

More of the same as the Dow gained 91 points on good volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive. It was a mixed bag though as both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 showed losses on the day. The NASDAQ sported the deepest decline and the short term indicators here appear to be rolling over. That would change the bullish outlook if it continues. The NASDAQ is pretty far away from its 50 day moving average. If this is indeed the start of a return to that line, we still have a ways to go. But the breadth here is far from negative and perhaps it is just some profit taking in that index. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. Gold got whacked today as the futures fell $25. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates rose. The XAU dropped 1 2/3, while GDX lost 5/8 on average volume. My GDX June calls are solid losers. I considered dumping them today but GDX is still above the longer term trend line although it has the feel now that it isn't going to hold. It was also a one day downside reversal for the gold shares. If we don't see any upside for the gold shares by the end of the week it will be time to put this trade to bed. Mentally feeling a bit frustrated again with the losing GDX trade. It showed a profit for a day or two last week and that was about it. The VIX finished little changed today and is very oversold. I'm not sure how long it will stay that way. The VIX is bullish for stocks right now so we'll see how long that lasts. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly lower in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Another day of hanging around as the Dow was up 10 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive though. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ led the way higher but there weren't any big gains. Like a broken record the major averages remain short term overbought. During rallies that condition lasts longer than you think. The better breadth is a positive going forward. However so far this week seems like the market is marking time until the next Fed meeting which is a week away. So the question is are we just going to be waiting for that or will we get at least some kind of short term trend here? We'll have to remain on the sidelines with regards to the SPY until we get a decent signal one way or the other. Gold was up about $5 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates were mixed. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on very light volume. The short term indicators for GDX are starting to move sideways. There is very little interest in the gold shares at the moment. My GDX June calls continue to be losers. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and now stands at 14. Short term oversold and staying that way. The VIX level hasn't been this low in over 3 years. Not sure what it means but a low VIX is usually bullish for stocks. So I guess we'll just be waiting around for this week to finish at the rate things are going. That won't help the option trades. But the market does what it wants and goes where it wants. Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll see if something gets things going overnight.

A nondescript start to the week as the Dow fell 200 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving higher. No follow through to Fridays good gains but some profit taking could be expected. It is a light week for economic data. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought as does the NASDAQ. The Dow was the leader going lower. No SPY trades in mind for now. Gold gained $8 on the futures. The US dollar finished unchanged and interest rates were flat as well. The XAU and GDX ended little changed too. Volume was light. My GDX June calls are still in the red. The longer term up trend line for gold and GDX remains intact for now. A break of that line will end the current trade and I'll have to take the loss. The weekly technical indicators for GDX are mid-range so it could go either way here. We'll hold for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly and remains short term oversold. The level here remains below 15 and that is bullish. Getting pretty far from the 50 day moving average though. Not much else to report for the first Monday in June. Asia up and Europe down overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

The Dow exploded to the upside today as it gained 701 points on good volume. The advance/declines were just shy of 6 to 1 positive. The summation index has turned around and is now moving higher. The zero line there has held for now. The jobs report came in hot with expanding job creation. The other details of the report were a touch weaker. The stock market liked what it saw but the Dow was the leader today. It looks like perhaps the summer rally is starting early this year. The S&P 500 appears to be on its way to the next resistance level at 4300. Short term overbought here with a little room left for the indicators to move higher. The NASDAQ remains overbought as it has been for weeks. It was a good week for stocks. Gold got pounded today as the futures were off thirty bucks. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell a point and GDX lost 5/8. Volume was good to the downside. My GDX June calls are back in the red. The daily candlestick chart here now looks bearish ot at least implying sideways price action. I thought about just selling this position and taking the small loss but the price movement today in the gold shares did not match the magnitude of the drop in gold itself. Still 2 weeks to go here but I'm certainly not sure that this idea will pan out. We got the oversold bounce for GDX this week but todays price action puts a damper on things. GDX is still above the longer term up trend line but we will have to see if that holds next week. Gold itself is in the same situation. Mentally I'm feeling anxious as I probably should have sold out this GDX position for a loss today. But we'll see what happens next week. The VIX continues to drop and closed below the 15 level today. This is bullish for stocks. Short term oversold now but in rallies the VIX stays that way. The market always knows more than we do. Not sure where the liquidity is coming from but I would not advise fighting the up trend. We'll go over the charts this weekend as usual. Asia and Europe closed higher. It looks like I was wrong about the sell the news event regarding the debt ceiling drama. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It wasn't exactly a big move in the Dow but the overall market was up better than the most watched index. The Dow gained 153 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up before it crosses the zero line. I'm guessing it will be successful. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way. The debt ceiling bill made it through one house of Congress and it seems like a done deal. The employment report out tomorrow should provide the market with reasons to move one way or the other. The S&P 500 is still not completely short term overbought so it could move higher from here. Back above 4200 but it hasn't been what we'd call a broad based rally. I still don't have any SPY trades in mind for now. Gold was up $13 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates dipped slightly. The gold shares found buyers as the XAU gained 4 points, while GDX added 1 1/8. Volume was good to the upside for a second day in a row. The short term indicators for GDX have now turned up with room to move higher. The longer term up trend line for GDX is still in place. My GDX June calls have moved into the black. However this trade still has to be managed properly from here. Do I get out with the small profit now or hold on for more gains? There's still a couple of weeks left in the June option cycle. It does appear that we at least have some kind of bottom in place with the gold shares now. But that could all change tomorrow in this game. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped and that fits todays price action. It appears that it has closed at a new low for the year. The low VIX is bullish for stocks and it is not completely short term oversold yet. It is oversold on a weekly basis though. Just a day left in the shortened trading week. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll see how the market reacts to the jobs report to close out the week tomorrow.

To the downside but it wasn't a rout as the Dow fell 134 points on heavy end of the month volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving lower. There was a gap lower at the open and then we spent the day moving sideways. We did get a signal from the McClellan oscillator yesterday for a big move within the next two sessions. We'll see if it shows up tomorrow. Waiting on the debt limit approval but that is probably already in the market. The Friday jobs report is the next potential market mover. Beginning of a new month tomorrow. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over. Not sure exactly what's next here so no SPY trades for now. The NASDAQ remains short term overbought. Gold was up $5 on the futures but came off of the highs for the day. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates had a drop. The XAU gained 1 7/8, while GDX was up about 3/4. Volume was good to the upside for a change. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to turn back up but remain oversold. My GDX June calls are still losers. I'm not sure if GDX is going to continue higher from here or just move sideways. There's still time for this trade to perhaps work out for a small gain but we'd have to see some upside follow through the rest of this week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly which fits with todays price action. The short term indicators here are now mid-range so things could go either way now with this indicator. Not sure what to expect. Europe and Asia were down overnight. We'll be keeping an eye on the headlines tonight to see if the debt package keeps moving along.

Pretty much a listless session on the return from the holiday weekend. The Dow fell 50 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still moving lower. The debt limit deal is done and now needs to be voted on. Hopefully that will be done by the end of the week and we can move on from that distraction. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way here and that's a plus. However it has remained short term overbought for quite some time and it is getting pretty far away from its 50 day moving average. But that doesn't mean it can't keep going up. It will have to take a rest at some point though. The S&P 500 is not completely short term overbought but seems to be having trouble getting through the 4200 level. Tomorrow is another day. Gold was up over $30 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates dropped. The XAU fell 1 1/8 and GDX lost over 1/8. Volume was average. A stellar day for gold and the gold shares lose value? That is not a good sign for the bulls as interest in owning the gold shaeres is lacking. My GDX June calls are solid losers and this trade will need to be completed sooner rather than later. Gold is holding on to its up trend line that has been in effect since November. GDX is also holding its longer term up trend line but todays price action was disappointing. If the gold shares can't get going on a thirty dollar rally in gold, when can they? Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits with the overall market. Mid-range for the short term technicals here so it could go either way. Still well below the 20 level and that implies higher stock prices moving forward. End of the month tomorrow and we'll see what that brings. We did purchase the natural gas ETF BOIL again today for the next trade there. We'll hold until it gets short term overbought. Asia up and Europe down in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Heading higher now as the Dow gained 328 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower which is puzzling considering the markets have been moving up. Not sure what that means but if the summation index can start heading back up we could see quite a rally. The zero line is still in view. The NASDAQ continues to be the leader and that's a plus. Another plus for the bulls was the fact that the inflation data came out a bit hot today and the market ignored it. Perhaps my idea of the market selling off on the debt limit deal is wrong. We'll know soon enough. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are turning back up. It is back above the 4200 level. Maybe stocks are just going to run up into the June option expiration but we'll have to wait and see. No SPY trades in mind for now. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were mixed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume. My GDX June calls are still losers and unless the gold shares get going to the upside next week I'm going to have to exit this trade with a loss. Haven't seen the bounce here that was expected given the technical data. A long weekend on tap to be holding onto this one. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was down today and is now below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here have turned back down. If the VIX continues lower, stocks should continue higher next week. Just waiting on Washington for now as the supposed June 1st deadline looms. Maybe they'll be an announcement over the holiday weekend. We'll go over the charts and try and come up with a game plan for next week. Europe closed higher and Asia as well with the exception of Hong Kong. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Bouncing higher for the overall market but the Dow fell 35 points on average volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues down. Earnings from NVDA sparked a huge rally in tech stocks that drove both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 higher. The short term indicators for the S&P are turning back up. Not sure where we are going from here as the breadth hasn't been keeping up with the gains. However I would expect some kind of relief rally when the debt limit agreement comes to pass. Whether or not we trust that rally is another question. Gold fell $23 on the futures. The US dollar and interest rates continue to climb. The XAU lost 2 1/2, while GDX shed 2/3. Volume was about average. I did purchase some of the GDX June calls today. They are showing a small loss. Short term oversold on the gold shares and staying that way which could be dangerous for this trade. GDX is almost at 30 and close enough for me to put this trade on. We should at the least see some kind of boounce here for GDX. However if we break through the 30 level and stay there, this index is in more trouble than I thought. So we'll keep an eye on things and see where we go from here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits the overall market. Still below 20 but it is above its 50 day moving average. I'm still not sure where it's going from here. A long weekend coming up so some of the players could be missing tomorrow. We've got inflation data coming out and that could be an early market mover. Washington dealings remain on the table for now as well. So we'll see how we close out the week. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Sellers remained in control today as the Dow fell 255 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving lower and on the way to the zero line. We all know what will happen if we go through there as the market will fall apart. I'm hoping that won't happen but if it does opportunities will be created. In the meantime the short term up trend line for the S&P 500 was violated today. The short term indicators here are moving down and still have a ways to go to get oversold. So things don't look promising for the bulls at the moment. However as soon as the debt limit agreement is announced, we should see a relief rally take place. Gold was down $14 on the futures today. The US dollar was higher and interest rates continued to climb. The XAU fell 3 1/4, while GDX dropped 1/4. Volume was average. Getting closer to the target of 30 for GDX. I again adjusted down my open order for the GDX June calls. Short term oversold and staying that way for GDX. Perhaps attempting the gold share calls is the wrong idea here but we are getting buy signals from some of the indicators. I also placed an order for the GDX July calls in case I'm too early with purchasing the calls for June. If GDX breaks the up trend line at 30 on the weekly chart then any call trades will be canceled as the decline for the gold shares will be much larger than anticipated. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX popped above 20 today and closed at that level. It's moving to short term overbought rather quickly. If the VIX gets above 20 and stays there it will be trouble for the market. Hasn't happened yet but we'll keep an eye on it. We'll see how things progress in tonights session and take it from there. Orders may have to be adjusted overnight. Europe and Asia continued down last night. It looks like after hours earnings from NVDA are giving the futures a lift. We'll see how it goes from there.

To the downside today as the Dow fell 231 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving sideways which is creating a ledge. Usually this indicates that things will fall off the ledge. We'll see if that's the case this time around. The NASDAQ was the leader heading down and that is not a plus. The short term indicators have now turned down for the S&P 500. Is it possible that the debt limit deal won't get done and the markets will collapse? I doubt it. Washington will eventually come up with something to avoid that scenario. Perhaps the extended overbought conditons of the market are finally getting adjusted. Whatever the situation, one day doesn't make a trend. The market has the rest of the week to sort things out. Gold finished around unchanged after being lower early on. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were flat. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. GDX remains short term oversold. I adjusted my order lower for the GDX June calls. I'm now thinking that GDX may hang around for a while before any meaningful move higher. I could be wrong. Up trend lines for GDX and gold itself remain in place for now. We will look to own some gold share calls if GDX gets back to that line at around 30. If it doesn't hold we'll take the loss and move on. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and the short term indicators have moved up from being oversold. Unsure as to whether this is a one day wonder or the beginning of a real move higher in the VIX. Still below both the 50 day moving average and the important 20 level. We'll keep an eye on it. The market is being held hostage to the debt limit debate and deadline. This too shall pass but for now we'll have to wait on Washington. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

It feels like we're running in place as the Dow fell 140 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving sideways. It was a mixed bag again with the NASDAQ moving higher and the S&P 500 practically unchanged. Being held hostage by the debt limit drama for now. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. The NASDAQ has been that way for a couple of weeks. Can't say that things will stay that way forever but that's where we are at for now. Just rolled into the June option cycle so the premiums for SPY are high. I still think that a resolution on the debt limit could be a sell the news event once the initial euphoria wears off. We'll see. Gold was off $7 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume. My open order for the June GDX calls remains in place. GDX is still short term oversold on the technical indicators. 30 is the ideal target for this move lower but we'll have to see if that happens. Also looking at the July GDX calls in case this decline has a longer shelf life. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which fits with the Dow but not the overall market. Still short term oversold here. Also put in another limit order to try BOIL again in the natural gas space. I'll let you know when and if it gets filled. Otherwise we'll have to keep up with the Washington stalemate headlines tonight. The odds favor some kind of deal and then the politicians can thankfully head away from the market spotlight. Asia was higher and Europe lower to start the trading week overseas. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

We opened higher and closed lower today as the Dow fell 109 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is starting to track sideways. Perhaps it's just a pause at the 4200 level before moving higher. Or maybe just more angst about the debt limit drama. Short term overbought on some of the S&P 500 indicators. I suppose we'll just have to wait and see where things go from here as we roll into the June option cycle. Option premiums will be pricey and there will be a holiday weekend at the end of next week. So unless we get a solid signal for trading the SPY we'll wait on the sidelines. Gold bounced twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower but interest rates continued their climb. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. I've left the order for the GDX June calls out there for now. GDX remains short term oversold at the moment. May adjust the order going forward but if GDX gets to 30 we will be buying some calls then. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that goes along with lower stock prices. Still short term oversold here but the VIX can stay that way during rallies. Comfortably below the 20 level here which implies higher prices in the future. Not much economic data out next week until Fridays inflation numbers. Might have to be patient for now. We'll look over the charts this weekend and take it from there. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Continuing higher as the Dow added 115 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn around again. It should be successful this time around. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way despite being short term overbought for an extended period. The S&P 500 finally made it to 4200 and closed just below there today. The short term indicators are pointing up and are not completely overbought yet. So we will expect higher prices going forward. The market knows more than we do and it appears to be telling us that the debt limit deal will get done. That could be a sell the news event since the markets are already moving higher. 4300 is the next target for the S&P. Gold was off $25 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates which has been the theme lately. The XAU lost about 3 points, while GDX dropped another 7/8. Volume was good to the downside. Short term oversold for GDX and I did place an order for the GDX June calls that I'm leaving out there. Gold itself is just about at its longer term up trend line and a bounce on it should be expected although it is possible for it to just continue through. The longer term up trend line for GDX comes in at 30 but if gold bounces I'd expect the gold shares to go along in the near term too. Again however there's the chance that the precious metals complex just keeps dropping. We'll now soon enough. I'd also like to add that on the daily GDX chart there is now a double top with a masuring objective of 30 to the downside. Mentally I'm feeling as though I missed another decent SPY trade by not getting the calls this week. We were leaning that way but did not want to take the early risk. Once again in retrospect we should have. The VIX was lower today which fits with the rally. Short term oversold here with just a little more room left. The VIX implies that the rally has legs and I'd have to agree. We sold our leveraged ETF BOIL today as natural gas moved up sharply today. The gain on this trade was 18%. More money was involved to take this position so we will be quick to exit once we have a solid profit. Still learning how this product is traded but we will buy it once again if and when it gets back down to where we purchased it this time around. Asia and Europe were higher as money is moving back into stocks around the globe. We'll see how expiration Friday goes tomorrow.

Buyers showed up today as the Dow gained 408 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still trending lower. It is also on its way towards the zero line which would imply the market falling apart. My guess is that it will turn around before that occurs but we'll see. We were hoping for weakness into Thursday to try the SPY May calls but the market did not cooperate. Might still try the calls there if the market drops tomorrow but the odds of the trade working have now gone down. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned up and it appears that was have broken out of the sideways congestion to the upside. Perhaps we can make it to 4200 by the close on Friday. Gold was off $6 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates once again. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. Short term oversold now for GDX but we are not in a rush to try the calls again here yet. The fact that gold is declining when is was supposed to be seen as a hedge for the debt limit problem tells us that the problem will be solved. Mentally just a bit frustrated as the market has moved up before we wanted it to. Did not take the risk of being too early on the idea and wanted to wait until the odds were at their peak. We'll move along from here. The VIX was lower today and there's still a little more room for the short term indicators to move down. Should I still try the SPY May calls tomorrow if there's weakness? Something to ponder overnight. Asia was generally down and Europe mixed in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Heading down today as the Dow fell 336 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The market was hanging around with minor losses before dropping in the final half hour. The Dow was the leader heading lower, while the NASDAQ was barely lower. The big move in the Dow confirms the signal from the McClellan oscillator but it certainly wasn't a broad decline. The S&P 500 remains mired in a sideways trend with the indicators still stuck in mid-range territory. We are hoping to see continued weakness into Thursday so we can try the SPY May calls for a very short term trade. We'll see. Gold fell almost $30 on the futures and closed below the $2000 level. The US dollar was a bit higher along with interest rates. The XAU dropped 3 1/2, while GDX shed 7/8. Volume was average. GDX is short term oversold and almost at its 50 day moving average. Do we attempt the GDX June calls here or wait for lower prices? There is an up trend line on the weekly chart that comes in at 30 and the indicators on this chart have plenty of room to work their way lower. So perhaps some patience is necessary here for now. Waiting for a positive divergence would not be a bad idea either. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that fits a down market. The short term indicators here have now turned up. I still don't have a good idea of what to expect from the VIX. The Dow continues to drop and is now short term oversold. The NASDAQ continues to hold up and is short term overbought. The S&P 500 indicators are neither overbought or oversold. It is a very confusing and complicated situation at the moment. It will resolve itself eventually. Three days to go in the May option cycle and we'll have to hope that we trend lower here to try the SPY calls before Friday. Risky indeed to attempt it but if it sets up I feel confident that it will work. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

The market continues to simply hang around as the Dow gained 48 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still heading lower but might be in the process of trying to turn around with todays positive breadth. The NASDAQ continues to outperform. We got a signal from the McClellan oscillator on Friday for a bit move within the next 2 trading days. We'll see if that pans out tomorrow. The S&P 500 continues to move sideways with the short term indicators at mid-range. We are considering the SPY May calls this week if we get a set up. That means if the market is weak going into Thursday, we'll try the SPY calls with one day or so left. That's the theory for now. Might already be too late if the market rallies from here. Gold was flat on the session. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU was up 1 1/8, while GDX gained about 1/3. Volume remains light here. GDX is short term oversold on some of its indicators. Might try the GDX June calls but not right now. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX finished flat and the daily candlestick chart still looks like it wants to go lower to me. Getting short term oversold but not completely there yet. Not really getting any clues about what's about to happen here next. Not a lot of economic data due this week but we will get retail sales tomorrow. Ongoing debt limit debate as well. We'll keep an eye on things but we might just be stuck on the sidelines for now. Asia was up and Europe flat to start the week. We'll see how things go on Tuesday.

Some buying at the open but then sellers appeared for much of the session until a recovery in the final hour. The Dow dropped 8 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues down. The NASDAQ led the way lower for a change but all the major stock indicies finished well off of their lows on the day. The S&P 500 remains in a sideways trend with the short term technical indicators stuck at mid-range. I am considering getting the SPY May calls on weakness Monday but today might have been the day to purchase as we have already moved up quite a lot from todays low. We'll consider this idea over the weekend. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional moves up on light volume. Not completely oversold for GDX again but it is in the vicinity of its recent lows. I dumped the GDX May calls that I had for a 75% loss. The entry wasn't as good as it could have been and the exit was horrible. Another mismanaged trade that should have turned a profit. What I need to guard against here is attempting another trade just to try and get even with this one. Thankfully the weekend is here and I'll have time to contemplate the next move. I am looking at the June GDX calls but the strength in the US dollar here might be a concern for gold. We'll see. Mentally I'm doing the best I can despite the losing trade. As I'll always said the mental capital involved with the trades, win or lose, is always the most important concept to consider. The VIX again finished little changed and is not yet completely oversold. It looks like the VIX could go either way although the daily candlestick chart here appears to point to a lower VIX. But I haven't figured out this indicator with any consistency lately. Plenty of charts to look at this weekend as we try and come up with a decent trade for options expiration week. Hopefully I'll be better at the execution than the latest debacle. Trying to move forward from here. Asia was generally lower and Europe up to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We're still getting mixed signals as the Dow fell 221 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving lower. We've had the summation index moving down but the stock market going sideways and that might be a good thing for the bulls. The producer prices came in tame but we had an early sell off. The NASDAQ was up yet again despite overall market weakness. Something has to give here sooner or later. I almost purchased some SPY May calls today because I do think we will resolve this indecision to the upside. Whether or not it's before option expiration is another question. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are still mid-range. Gold fell $17 on the futures as silver got crushed today and lost over $1. The US dollar was higher and interest rates fell slightly. The XAU lost 5 1/2, while GDX tanked 1 1/2. Volume was good to the downside. My GDX May calls are now solid losers and all but dead. The only reason that I held on to them is that GDX is so blown out to the downside on some indicators that there should be some kind of bounce tomorrow to exit the trade. This one was poorly managed once again as a winner turned into a loser. Lack of discipline once again reared its ugly head. Greed may have been a slight factor. There was a glaring potential negative RSI divergence on the GDX daily chart that I chose to ignore. It manifested itself today with a huge loss in the index. I'm not sure why silver had such a huge decline but it looks like the industrial metals are coming down. Copper is dropping and could be a precursor to a slowing economy. Silver heading down would fit into that scenario. No matter. We'll take the loss on this GDX call trade tomorrow and try to move on. Mentally I'm frustrated of course as I did not have the right frame of mind to do what had to be done in the GDX call trade. Not a lot of money involved but the mental loss is always harder to deal with. But you've got to find a way to put it behind you and go forward. The VIX was flat on the session and the technical conditon there remains the same. Not sure where it is headed next. Asia and Europe were generally lower overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

It was a yoyo market today as we gapped up at the open, sold off hard and then made it all the way back and then some for most of the indices. The Dow posted a loss of 30 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving lower. Inflation data came in where expected which caused relief at the open. But sellers took over only and pounded things into a loss until halfway through the session when buyers appeared. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted decent gains for the day. The short term indicators for the S&P are still stuck in the middle but they have turned up. I'm not sure what to expect with tomorrows producer prices. Let's just say today looked like we were about to fall off a cliff and the market turned around. We'll take that as a plus. But tomorrow's another day. Gold was off around five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU dropped 1 1/8, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was light here but better than it has been lately. The gold shares did come up off of their worst levels on the day. However the short term indicators for GDX have now rolled over. Somehow the GDX May calls that I still own are still slightly in the black. I've clearly overstayed my welcome in this trade and will have to seriously consider dumping it before the weekend. Still seven days to go yet in the May option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and its short term indicators are leaning down. The low VIX is another reason why we are still thinking that the S&P will reach 4200 sometime soon. It remains solidly below the all important level of 20 which normally indicates higher stock prices to come. Again, things could change tomorrow but if the inflation data comes in benign stocks could rally. Our own work says that the PPI might come in a little hot so we'll see. Europe and Asia had losses last night. On to Thursdays infation data.

Another day of going nowhere as the Dow fell 56 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is heading down. We had a gap lower at the open and then went sideways for the rest of the session. Waiting on inflation data tomorrow and Thursday. Not sure what that will bring. The NASDAQ was the leader heading lower but the losses were small. The technical condition for the S&P 500 hasn't changed. Mid-range on the short term indicators and waiting to see which way they go. Not getting a good signal either way so we're on the sidelines with respect to the SPY for now. 8 days to go in the May option cycle. Gold was up $8 on the futures. The US dollar rose and interest rates ticked up slightly. Once again the XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume. It was also the second day in a row that gold had a rise and the gold shares failed to respond. That's a negative. Not sure why I'm still holding on to the GDX May call trade but hope springs eternal. On the hourly chart that we look at here the indicators are back at 50% so things can go either way for the gold shares as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today at it too is waiting on tomorrows data. Will volatility be making a comeback is the question. My guess would be not right now as the VIX has been able to remain below the 20 level for over a month. But we'll let the market decide what's next and take things from there. Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Just hanging around would be the best way to describe todays price action as the Dow fell 55 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still tracking lower. Waiting on the inflation data would sum things up. Mixed as well since the NASDAQ posted a small gain. The S&P finished flat. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are around mid-range now. So either way from here is a possibility. I guess I'll still look for the S&P to get to 4200 this week as we've been waiting on that for a few weeks. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates rose. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume. The short term indicators for GDX are slightly overbought and starting to roll over. This does not look good for our GDX May calls. They are still sporting a profit but not nearly as much as last week. Time premium is being sucked out and the light volume is no help. Might have to think about dumping them before they turn into a loss. Still nine days to go though and the reaction to the inflation data will most likely determine the outcome of this trade. Gold finished off of the highs of the session and that's a negative. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. Not sure where the VIX is headed next. Not close to short term overbought or oversold here. Indecision time in the market. A meeting in Washington on the debt limit could influence markets one way or the other. But the inflation data will probably be the main driver for this week. Asia was higher with the exception of Japan while Europe was quiet and mixed. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Buyers took over today as the Dow soared higher by 546 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive. The summation index is still heading lower. Employment was a bit better than expected and the earnings from Apple were viewed as positive. It appears that yesterdays heavy volume combined with the selling was an exaustion point to the downside for now. We were looking for a bounce at the beginning of next week but it came early. The NASDAQ was the leader today and that's a plus for the bulls. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up. The weekly candlestick chart there looks constructive although it is overbought. We'll get inflation data out next week and that should be the next mover for markets. Gold got crushed as the futures dropped $30. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates were up. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume. The fact that the gold shares held up rather well despite the loss in gold itself is encouraging. However the short term indicators for GDX are starting to roll over. The weekly candlestick chart for gold does not look good for the bulls. My GDX May calls are still in the black but we'll need to think hard over the weekend about what to do here. Never anything easy in this game. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped big as todays stellar gains imply. The short term indicators here have rolled over and it looks like higher stock prices in the near future according to the VIX. So we'll have to ask again, are we finally on our way to 4200 on the S&P? The reaction to next weeks inflation data will probably answer that. Plenty of work to do going over the charts this weekend. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Still moving lower as the Dow fell 286 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues down. The Dow has been leading the way lower. The S&P 500 is almost to its 50 day moving average at 4040. We'll have to see what happens if and when it gets there. The fact that the NASDAQ hasn't been leading the way down is a plus in my mind and one of the reasons that I don't think that the decline will be something big. I could be wrong. Getting short term oversold on the S&P but not completely there yet. If the S&P is down tomorrow we'll look for a bounce at the beginning of next week. Not sure if it will be worth trying the SPY May calls there though. Employment data tomorrow should be a mover. Gold was up twenty bucks on the futures but came off of the best levels of the day. The US dollar was slightly higher as it finished well off of the lows for the session. Interest rates dropped. The XAU gained 3 1/4, while GDX added 7/8. Volume was good to the upside. My GDX May calls are showing a gain but finished well off of the best levels for the day. Still holding this trade for now as GDX is stalling at 36, the area of near term resistance. If it can get through there it will have room to run. Gold itself is close to setting a new all time high. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up and barely closed above 20 and its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here are not yet completely overbought. Perhaps we should listen to both the lower summation index and the rising VIX. They imply more selling going forward and more than I am anticipating. So we'll see. The market always knows more than we do. Perhaps there's more bank failures on the way. Just a guess there. Asia higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

The market took a little while to figure out which way it wanted to go after the Fed but finally decided on lower as the Dow lost 270 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving lower. Got the expected 1/4 point rise in rates which led to an hour of bouncing around before selling off. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned south and perhaps we're heading to the 50 day moving average at around 4040. But I do not think this is the start of an extended decline as the NASDAQ wasn't the leader once again. But who knows? We'll know more as the rest of the week unfolds. Next up is Fridays jobs report. Gold rose almost $20 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates again. The gold shares did not participate in the upside with gold as both the XAU and GDX had just slight fractional gains on average volume. Perhaps that was because of the lower overall stock market. Well we hope that's the case otherwise it's a negative for the gold shares going forward. My GDX May calls are still in the black. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher and that fits a down market. The short term indicators here are now mid-range so where thay go next will tell us a lot. My guess is that they'll roll over again and the market will turn back up but I'm not willing to trade on that. There's still plenty of time in the May option cycle for the SPY. Europe was higher and Asia generally lower although some markets remain closed there. Tomorrow should be a waiting game on the employment report. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Sellers took over today in what seemed to be a delayed reaction to yesterdays First Republic bank failure. The Dow lost 367 points on better volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. This turns the summation index back down. There was some weaker economic data out this morning as well. But we'll stick to the technicals as the S&P 500 did reach short term overbought on some of the indicators yesterday. Todays decline does seem to bode well for put buyers going forward but it isn't set in stone just yet. We finished well off of the lows for the session and the NASDAQ wasn't a strong leader going lower. A lot will depend on the markets reaction to the Fed tomorrow. Not sure how that will go. The daily candlestick chart for the S&P 500 does now have a bearish look though. Gold took off to the upside on fear as the futures climbed $34. The US dollar was lower and interest rates dropped. The XAU gained 4 1/4, while GDX rose 1 1/4. Volume expanded to the upside which is bullish if it continues tomorrow. The short term technical indicators for GDX have turned up. The GDX May calls that I have are now showing a profit. Not sure how long we'll hold on to this one. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up but did fall back after a spike to almost 20 this morning. I don't know if that means that the decline has already reached its limit. We'll know more after tomorrow I suppose. The short term indicators have turned back up here. It was the most volatile session in a while but I'm not sure if it means a return to more of the same. However even after the Fed we've still got the jobs report on Friday to deal with. Interesting times. Asia was up but China remains closed. Europe finished lower. All eyes and ears on the Fed tomorrow.

It's a waiting game to begin the new month as the Dow fell 46 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. Another bank failure but the market seemed to take it in stride as it wasn't unexpected. A somewhat listless trading session as we await the Fed on Wednesday. Another rate hike is in the cards but the speech afterwards should provide some market movement. Until then we'll just be hanging around. Short term overbought now for the S&P 500 and the daily candlestick chart has what looks like an evening star here. That could be ominous going forward unless we can continue higher. In fact a lot of the daily candlestick charts for the major averages have the same potential evening star on them. So getting some upside from here is essential for the bulls. Gold was off ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. Both the XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. Light volume equals no interest. It was another session where the gold shares opened higher and closed lower. Still short term oversold here on some of the indicators but we're not seeing a bounce. My GDX May calls are losers and this trade is not looking like it will pan out. The Bollinger bands are contracting on the daily GDX chart which implies that a big move is coming. The way it looks today is that the move will be lower. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up bit today and that fits the lower prices. Short term oversold here and there's the potential to work off that conditon and the market to move lower near term. That would fit with the evening star candlestick picture. But we all know that the market moves where it wants when it wants. The VIX can stay oversold for extended periods of time as well. There's no doubt that the market will move off of the Fed though and we're just waiting on that. Which way is the question. Most foreign markets were closed for May day. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Adding to yesterdays stellar gains as the Dow was up 272 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. Not many sellers on the last day of the month as the S&P 500 closed at the highest level since the beginning of February. The short term indicators here still have room to run higher so perhaps we'll finally make it to 4200. We'll have the Fed to deal with next week and the employment report. But right now it looks like we're at the start of a rally. Gold finished flat again on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates fell. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on the continued light volume. My GDX May calls are now showing a small loss. GDX remains short term oversold so there's still a chance that this trade will work. Unless of course it just trends lower from here and stays oversold. That's certainly a possibility. We'll see how it goes next week. Mentally I'm feeling a bit mixed since in retrospect we chose the wrong trade between the gold shares and the S&P. However you have to try and make the best decisions with the information that you have in front of you at the time. Always moving forward is another way to try and stay sane in this difficult game. The VIX was lower again and closed below 15. Getting short term oversold but not completely there yet. The lack of volatility and the low VIX reading is another reason why we think that this rally will have legs despite the overall low volume. Perhaps we'll get some beginning of the month money flows starting on Monday. We'll be going over the charts this weekend as usual. Europe and Asia finished the week with gains. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market exploded to the upside as the Dow soared 524 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. We had a gap up at the open and just kept going. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus. Probably some short covering involved as well after the past two down days. GDP was weaker than expected but earnings came in better than thought. Let me be clear in stating that we are not in the business of predicting what the market is going to do on a day to day basis. That is usually just a 50/50 proposition. However there are times when the numbers and technicals line up in such a way that the odds favor one direction over the other by a wide margin. It doesn't happen often but today was one of those days that under normal market conditions where we could see it coming before it happened. Had we been further along in the May option cycle, the option premiums would have been less and we would have given the SPY calls a shot. Although correct in the direction we can never tell the magnitude of what to expect. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now turned back up. Light volume is a concern though. Inflation data out tomorrow and if it is stronger than expected the market will most likely turn back lower. But we'll see. Gold finished flat on the futures. The US dollar ended the day little changed as well. Interest rates rose. The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume remains light here. My GDX May calls are showing a slight profit. Not sure how long we'll hold on to this one. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated for not having the SPY May calls but what can you do? I'm usually not that good when it comes to the short term trades. The VIX dropped and that fits today price action. The indicators here are now rolling over which implies more gains for stocks. Inflation data out tomorrow should get things going one way or the other. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.

Lower again today for the most part as the Dow fell 229 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. The NASDAQ managed to post a gain but was off of the best levels for the session. We did get follow through selling for the S&P as it is getting short term oversold. Once again I am very confident that tomorrow will be an up day. Not sure what the reasons will be but technically it fits our work. If tomorrow is lower though, then the market is in much more trouble that I thought. But we don't think that will be the case. The premiums on the SPY May calls were too expensive in our view to try a short term trade there but in retrospect that might have been a mistake. We'll see what happens. Gold was off $5 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU was down 1 1/3, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume remains pretty light here. GDX opened higher and closed lower for a one day downside reversal. It is short term oversold but not extremely so just yet. I did adjust my open order for the GDX May calls a couple of times and it eventually got filled. So we are in the next trade. Not sure how long we'll hold on to this idea and I don't know if the gold shares will follow the overall market higher tomorrow. Todays price action was pretty negative. However on the GDX hourly chart we have a potential positive RSI divergence that would play itself out tomorrow if GDX follows up with a gain. If NEM has a decent earnings report that would also help the bullish cause for the gold shares. Or gold and the gold shares could just continue lower as the market always simply goes where it wants. The light volume here is a concern. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today but did bounce around back and forth. The short term indicators here are still pointing up which would imply more decline on the horizon. Still below the 50 day moving average and the 20 level. GDP on tap tomorrow and that could be a market mover. Earnings will be coming out as well. The TRAN got slammed again today and perhaps that might be the story that we should be looking at going forward. With the summation index now heading down, the path of least resistance should be lower. But we still think that Thursday will be positive. Europe and Asia were lower with the exception of Hong Kong. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Volatility returned and we finally got some movement as the Dow fell 344 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index has turned down. The sell off was broad based with the TRAN taking the biggest percentage hit. I still don't think this is the start of something big to the downside but what do I know? The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are trending down but not completely oversold yet. We are about to have the 50 day moving average cross below the 200 day moving average on the Russell 2000. That is not a positive. We haven't broken the up trend line in the NASDAQ that began at the start of the year. So the bulls have that. I'm not sure about tomorrow as we'll see if there is any downside follow through. But I am pretty sure that Thursday will be positive. Whether it's GDP, earnings or whatever that should be an up day according to the work we do here. The question is whether we buy the SPY May calls on weakness tomorrow. The premiums there are pricey though. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dropped on a flight to safety. The XAU had a fractional loss and GDX had a slight fractional gain. Volume remains light. My order for the GDX may calls remains out there but at this rate it won't get filled before Thursday. I might just buy the calls there above the price that I want and take my chances. However the light volume in the gold shares is telling me that there is no real demand there at the moment. I'll have to decide one way or the other tonight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX perked up today but did finish off of the highs for the day. The short term indicators have turned up with some room to go. The VIX remains below the 20 level which is another reason why I don't think a huge decline is in the cards here. If the VIX gets back above 20 then that would change our view. As is the usual story with this game, always plenty of questions with no easy answers. Asia and Europe were generally down. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

The week started right where we left off with a listless, going nowhere for now market. The Dow was up 66 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving sideways. A mixed bag as the NASDAQ was negative. The S&P 500 remains stuck in a range. The short term indicators here are trying to turn back up so perhaps we'll see some buying tomorrow. But who knows? Still waiting on a catalyst or something to get things going. Earnings haven't provided much direction as yet, perhaps the GDP report on Thursday will get things moving. Inflation data out on Friday. We just rolled in to the May option cycle so the premiums are still high. Gold rose $8 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates a bit higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on pretty light volume. I did place another open order for the GDX May calls and I'm leaving it out there for now. Not completely short term oversold for GDX but we're getting there. I might adjust the order and take this trade ahead of the NEM earnings report on Thursday. We'll see. There's been a lack of volume lately for the gold shares and that is not a positive. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was basically unchanged today but was higher during the session. Still short term oversold on the daily indicators but that has been the case for weeks. Not getting a good idea of what comes next here with regards to the VIX. Plenty of earnings due in the next few days. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly lower to begin the last week in April. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Just another day of watching paint dry as the Dow gained 22 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is stalling here. We saw a little back and forth early but have finished just about where we started. The was no expiration volatility and no positive expiration week bias. Not sure what the market is doing here but it ain't much. It's a trendless game at the moment and that isn't appealing to options trading. It's still a week and a half until the Fed. The S&P 500 has been trading sideways for a while and we're still waiting to get to 4200. The short term technical indicators here have rolled over from overbought. I'm not sure what comes next here but we'll move on to the May option cycle. Gold lost over $25 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates a bit higher. The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX lost 3/8. Volume was light. GDX is moving towards short term oversold but isn't there quite yet. I am looking at the May calls here now and will probably place an order before the open on Monday. We'll put the order in only to be filled if GDX continues to decline. There's a possibility that gold rolls over here and we do not want the calls if that happens. GDX could be headed back to the 50 day moving average which is below 31. So we will have to look at things this weekend and try to come up with the right game plan here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today as there was no upside follow through to yesterdays slight gain. Still short term oversold and the VIX is still saying that higher stock prices are in our future. It is a low volatility environment at the moment. The low volume is a concern for the bulls. But there is an old adage saying to never short a dull market. We'll stick to the techncials and right now there isn't a clear signal with regards to the SPY. We'll check the charts this weekend and take it from there. Europe was higher and Asia lower to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A bit of volatility returned as the Dow fell 110 points on light volume. We opened with a gap to the downside and then moved back up until when there was 2 hours left in the trading day. Then we had a huge sell off only to rebound again in the final half hour. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is starting to congest. The NASDAQ led the way lower. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are finally starting to roll over. They are still overbought but coming off of higher levels. I do not think that this is the beginning of some kind of extended downside correction. But I've been wrong before. Gold rose $7 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates dipped too. The XAU and GDX had minimal slight fractional moves lower on very light volume. I did not try the GDX April calls again with 2 days left in the April option cycle. We are moving out to the May GDX calls for the next possible trade there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits with a down market. The short term indicators here are now coming off of the extreme oversold levels. It doesn't mean that a big decline is in the cards because we are well below the level of 20. I'm still looking for the 4200 level on the S&P 500 before we take a different view of where we're going. Asia was generally higher and Europe was down. We'll see about expiration Friday tomorrow.

It was still just another day of hanging around as the market opened lower, made it all the way back and then some only to fall back again in the final half hour. The Dow fell 79 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues up. Most of the major indexes finished little changed. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought as if it were in an endless loop. So far option expiration week has been a big yawn. I'm expecting higher prices as we have yet to reach the target of 4200 on the S&P. Volatility is low and the trading is lackluster. Gold was off a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher along with interest rates. The XAU was off 2 7/8, while GDX shed 1/2. Volume was a bit above average. I did place another order for the GDX April calls but it wasn't filled. I adjusted it a couple of times during the day because I thought that this idea still might work. However the short term indicators on the daily chart for GDX have rolled over and are not yet oversold. But we have shorter time frames that we look at and some of those are indicating a bounce possible there in the next 2 days. Perhaps if GDX is lower on the open we'll try the calls for a very short term trade. But the risk may not be worth the reward. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX is still lower today and remains extremely short term oversold. The RSI is around 34 1/2. We are not going to be able to base a trade on that in the April option timeframe. The premiums for May will be inflated with so much time remaining there. So we may just have to pass on the trade based on the RSI for the VIX. Looks like we'll be remaining on the sidelines for now. Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

We had a gap to the upside to start things off. Then the market sold off into negative territory and spent the rest of the session going sideways. It can't seem to make up its mind. The Dow lost ten points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues to the upside. All the major indices finished with slight moves either way. The S&P 500 is still short term overbought. It doesn't look like we'll be making a trade this week there. Gold was up $10 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were steady. Both the XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. I did place an overnight order for the GDX April calls but it wasn't filled. Might try again tomorrow but we are really running out of time for this idea. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower again today and the short term oversold condition persists. It doesn not look like the RSI here will make it down to our target of 30 in order to attempt the SPY April puts. So it looks like we'll remain on the sidelines until the next option cycle unless we try the GDX calls with three days to go. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Some back and forth today but the final 2 hours saw an advance as the Dow gained 100 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. The S&P 500 continues its short term overbought condition. We're still looking for a trade in the SPY this week but have come up empty so far. Some economic data due out this week but nothing that is expected to be a big market mover. Earnings will continue to be the focus in our view. My guess would be that the positive option expiration bias takes effect and we'll see higher prices going forward to Friday. But with the overbought condition a drop could appear out of nowhere. It looks like we'll be on the sidelines with respect to the SPY. Gold was off eight bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher again along with interest rates. The XAU lost 3 1/4 and GDX shed 3/4. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX have turned down and they have plenty of room to go lower. That said, we still might try the GDX April calls with only 4 days left to go in the April option cycle. Those that missed the recent run up in the gold shares might be looking to jump in on this slight decline. Or this could be the beginning of a move back to the 50 day moving average which GDX is still pretty far from reaching. I'll have to look at the shorter term technicals tonight and see if a trade is the right thing to do here. The risk would be very high either way. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and closed below 17. It remains very short term oversold. The RSI on the daily chart is at 36 1/2 and I don't know if it will make it down to 30 this week. Plenty to consider overnight as we try and decide if a trade is worth the risk this week or should we simply wait for better opportunities. Asia up and Europe down to start the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

A one day reversal to the downside as the market opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 143 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving up. The economic data was mixed with retail sales coming in lighter than expected. Bank earnings were in line or better than anticipated but after a breif early rally in stocks, sellers took over. The market did however finish well off of the lows for the day though. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. It's hard to make a case for trying anything with the SPY considerign there's only a week to go and no clear signal. If we do try anything it will have to be very short term in nature. However the short term trades are not really my strength so perhaps caution will be advised. Gold dropped $35 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell over 2 3/4, while GDX lost 3/4. Volume was good to the downside but the gold shares came back well off of their lows for the session. Still short term overbought here as well. Yes I'd still like to try the gold share calls but we are running out of time in the April option cycle. We'll consider what to do over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that doesn't fit with a down market. Not sure what the story is here. Still short term oversold which has been the persistent condition. Firmly below the 18 level now on the VIX with the RSI at 37. Maybe we'll get to 30 on the RSI next week but will there be enough time to try the SPY April put trade? The VIX still projects higher stock prices going forward. It was a positive week for stocks as all the major averages posted gains. The only caveat here is that the volume wasn't robust. We'll see if that means anything going forward. There are always many questions without easy answers in this game. We'll go over the charts in the next couple of days and try to come up with a game plan for a trade next week. Europe and Asia posted gains to close out the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Off we go to the upside as the Dow gained 383 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Producer prices came in tame and it was a rally from the start. The NASDAQ led the way. It appears that prices now will probably run up into option expiration next week. Perhaps 4200 will be in the cards for the S&P 500. It does remain short term overbought but that may not deter things from going higher. The S&P has been overbought for about 3 weeks. Only six days left in the April option cycle and a trade in SPY looks less likely at this point. Gold rallied $30 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were up a bit. The XAU climbed 4 points, while GDX added about a point. Volume was good to the upside as there are no sellers for now. The gold shares remain extremely overbought and now are pretty far from their 50 day moving average. I canceled my open order for the GDX April calls as it was nowhere near to getting filled. It has been quite a move in gold and the gold shares and I missed it. I'm not sure how much longer it can go on but we'll be buyers on any pullback if it can get short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today and closed below the 18 level. It dropped lower out of the recent congestion and that implies higher prices yet to come. Remaining short term oversold here. One possible trade before expiration next week would be the SPY April puts if the RSI on the daily VIX hits 30. It is currently 39 and change. Not sure that it will reach that level but we'll keep an eye on it. Retail sales data out tomorrow and some earnings start to trickle in. So the market will have excuses to move. Asia and Europe were higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

It was another back and forth session as the Dow dropped 38 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is moving up. We waited for the inflation data to show up and there were no surprises. Producer prices out tomorrow. The NASDAQ was the leader heading lower. The short term indicators there have now rolled over. Despite todays drop the S&P 500 remains short term overbought. It has been traveling sideways for a week and a half. We would like to try a SPY trade in the April option cycle but have yet to receive a decent signal one way or the other. I'll try not to press things here just for the sake of making a trade. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates remained steady. The XAU rose 1 1/4, while GDX added 1/3. Volume was light. I did place an open order overnight for the GDX April calls. It wasn't filled and it will take some decline in GDX for that to happen. I'm leaving the order out there for now. GDX continues to be short term overbought and has been for over 4 weeks. This won't last forever. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished about where it started today. It's still below the 20 level and in a sideways channel. Also still short term oversold. I don't know what to expect here next. Stocks seem to still be waiting for some kind of catalyst to get them going up or down. I'm not sure what that would be or where it will come from. We'll stick with trying some kind of gold share call trade for now as money continues to find a home there. Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of the Hang Seng. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Mixed is the best way to descibe todays price action although things were looking pretty positive until the final half hour. The Dow gained 98 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. We were looking at gains all around the stock indices but sellers took over in the final half hour. The NASDAQ posted a loss and the S&P finished little changed.. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. I still think that we'll get to 4200 on the S&P before we see the end of this rally but I could be wrong. Tomorrows inflation data should prvide the catalyst one way or the other. Not sure exactly what to expect there. We're still looking for some kind of SPY trade before option expiration next week. Gold was back up $15 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates held steady. The XAU gained 1 2/3, while GDX added 5/8. Volume was light for what we've seen here lately. I may put in an order overnight for the GDX April calls in case we get a sell off early in the morning. GDX remains short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a touch today, remains short term oversold and I don't know what to expect here next. Still below the 20 level and that's a plus for the bulls. Where we go next will depend on the reaction to tomorrows data. Europe and Asia finished higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments and see what the inflation data has in store for us tomorrow.

An early sell off was met with buying for the rest of the session as the Dow gained 101 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving to the upside. We did get a signal on Friday from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two days. We'll see if that pans out tomorrow. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 finished about where thay started. Both remain short term overbought. Waiting on the inflation data due out on Wednesday and Thursday. Earnings season will begin on Friday with some of the major banks. So there will be plenty of reasons for stocks to move around this week. We still like the market to progress higher and look for 4200 on the S&P. Gold dropped $20 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up. The XAU fell 1 1/3, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was light. GDX remains short term overbought. We're still considering the GDX April calls but are hesitiant to put on that trade due to the sustained overbought condition. If GDX makes it back to the 33 level we may give the calls a shot. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher which doesn't fit with an up or sideways market day which we saw today. Still pretty oversold on a daily bais here. However the daily candlestcik chart here still looks like it implies lower readings for the VIX going forward. Never any easy going in this game. Less than 2 weeks now left in the April option cycle. We will be looking to put on some type of trade either in SPY or GDX. Most of the foreign markets were still on holiday last night. What were open finished mixed. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Just hanging around before a long weekend as the Dow rose a couple of points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is still moving up. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 were higher today as well. They also both remain short term overbought. Waiting on tomorrows jobs report and there isn't much else to say but that. We will just have to wait and see how it goes on Monday morning. Gold was off a dozen on the futures today. The US dollar finished little changed as did interest rates. It is a waiting game here as well. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on pretty light volume. The overbought extremes continue for the gold shares. We still are hoping for some type of pullback during the April option cycle here but if not we'll move on. All the players should be back at their desks on Monday. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is getting to support at the 18 level. If it can get through there the rally will have even more legs. Still remaining very short term oversold on the VIX but that can last for a while in uptrends. My guess remains that the S&P will make it up to 4200. Our open order for the natural gas ETF BOIL was filled today. This is an idea that we plan on holding for less than a year. If and when we see a move higher and the indicators get overbought, we'll be out. However this isn't a fast moving instrument and the possibility of holding on for months isn't out of the question. It could be a buy in the spring, sell in the winter kind of deal. We'll be keeping an eye on it and be ready to take the loss if it simply continues to drop. It is our first endeavor with a leveraged ETF so we'll see. Europe was up and Asia mixed overnight. A long weekend is upon us. We'll go over the charts, enjoy the extra day off and get ready for next week.

Another mixed bag as the Dow was up while the overall market struggled. The most watched index gained 80 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up. The NASDAQ led the way down for most of the indices. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought despite a couple of down days. It feels as though stocks are just hanging around and waiting for the next catalyst. Or perhaps it's just a holiday week feel as the markets will be closed on Friday. Whatever the case we will remain patient for now and look to put on a trade next week after we get the jobs report out of the way. Plenty of time in the April option cycle to make something happen. Gold was flat on the session. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were slightly lower. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on good volume. Waiting on some kind of pullback here as both gold and the gold shares are extremely overbought. It will be risky to try the calls but that is the plan for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished barely higher today and remains short term oversold. The daily chart still looks like it wants to go lower. We are in a waiting game at the moment. One trading day left this week tomorrow and I'm pretty sure that we will just let it pass. We won't try and force things here but try and let the markets tell us where we go next. Having patience isn't the easiest thing in the world sometimes but it is necessary in the game. So we'll simply stay on the sidelines until next week. Europe and Asia finished mixed. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Some selling today and that wasn't unexpected as the Dow fell 198 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving up. We were due for some give back and saw some today. We don't think it's the beginning of any kind of sustained downside activity. The S&P 500 does remain short term overbought along with the Dow and the NASDAQ. But as we've said before, in rallies the markets simply stay overbought. We still expect higher prices going forward. Gold took off today and gained almost forty bucks on the futures. The US dollar continued its slide and interest rates were lower. The XAU jumped 4 1/3, while GDX was up over a point. Volume was heavy to the upside. I did place another order for the GDX April calls but then canceled it. There is no doubt that the gold shares are heading higher but I have to at least wait until they pull back before trying to trade them now. Obviously the best opportunities here have passed us by. But with GDX going straight through the 33 level without hesitation tells us there is more room to run. We will look to try the calls on a pullback to 33. The short term indicators here are extremely overbought. GDX is also moving pretty far away from its 50 day moving average. So trying the calls here may not be the best move in the world but the momentum is strong. We'll try and figure things out as we move forward. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but finished well off the highs of the session. It remains short term oversold but the daily candlestick chart appears to look like it wants to go lower. Still below the 20 level here. We saw selling in the market today and the question is whether it will be the start of some actual downside or just a sideways pause to take a breather. I'm inclined to believe the latter. Asia was generally higher and Europe mixed overnight. Halfway through the trading week and we'll see how it goes tomorrow.

A mixed bag to start the week but the Dow gained 327 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ posted a loss along with the TRAN. The S&P 500 was up and the technical condition there remains the same. Short term overbought. Plenty of data out this week with Fridays jobs report the most anticipated. However Friday is also a holiday so we will have to wait out the long weekend to see the market response. For now the trend is up until further notice. We still believe any decline can be bought successfully. Gold was up $15 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 2 1/4, while GDX gained 3/4. Volume was good. The gold shares continue to plow higher despite being overbought for weeks. We still would like to try the GDX April calls but haven't taken the chance. It is hard to get long a trade when it is already overbought but in rallies that condition just keeps on going. It will end at some point and sometimes I get the feeling that point will be the moment you put on the call trade. However money continues to find a home in gold and I don't see anything to change that narrative right now. GDX is at some resistance now at the 33 level so perhaps we'll get a pause to try the April calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today and that fits with most of the market being up. Very short term oversold now so I would expect to see some type of decline in stocks this week. Not anything that would change the overall bullish scenario though. We'll see. Asia and Europe were higher to start the week with the exception of the DAX. We are considering a trade in natural gas as it has been hammered down to levels that we think are worth taking a risk on the long side. We are looking at a leveraged instrument, BOIL, which is an ETF not an option. We do have an order in for it if the price gets down to where we'd like to purchase. I haven't traded this product before but it does appear to have enough liquidity to give it a try. Unlike the option trades, there are not deadlines for selling it once purchased. However for us this is a trading vehicle and not something to be held on to for more than a year. We'll be keeping an eye on it and let you know if our order gets filled. As always we'll keep watch on tonights trading activity.

Yesterday saw the inflation data come in weaker than expected which led to a broad rally. The Dow was up over 400 points and the NASDAQ continues to lead the way. The summation index is moving higher and we'll take our cues from there. Declines can be used to get long in our opinion. Gold fell back a little bit. We have a shortened trading week on tap with the Good Friday holiday. I'm feeling better and should be back to normal on Monday. Enjoy the weekend.