It was a negative end to the week as the Dow was driven down 533 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower and we'll take our cues from that. Very oversold for the Dow and we haven't seen anything that resembles a bounce. I thought by now we would have seen something to the upside but the technical indicators just aren't working as usual. That's a sign of trouble despite the NASDAQ holding up rather well here. The S&P 500 just closed below its 50 day moving average. We're short term oversold here for the S&P but that may not mean anything. I think that the market is going through a fundamental change that the easy money faucet is starting to be turned off. However that is just a guess on my part as my trading lately has been miserable. GE was off another 1/4 on better than average volume. Gold was off five bucks on the futures as the US dollar continues its climb. Interest rates were lower. Gold is at a two year up trend line that if it breaks will mean much lower gold prices going forward. It looks ready to break it. A close below $1750 would seal the deal in my mind. The XAU lost almost 3 1/2, while GDX dropped over 3/4. Volume remains above average. The gold shares are underperforming and that's not a positive going forward. Here again we should have seen at least a bounce but only get more selling. My stop limit loss order got down to my price but nothing happened. This has occurred to me before. I canceled that order and simply got out at the market. It was a 50% loss and that was one ill timed trade that should not have been entered. Once again the technicals are not acting as they usually do. Mentally I'm reeling from two losing trades this week. Gold is probably dead on the long side for a while and I was slow to accept that. I also think that the overall market is rolling over here but the NASDAQ continues to hold on. That's generally bullish but nothing is working for me at the moment. The VIX bumped up above its 50 day moving average and closed above the 20 level. That's a warning going forward and I certainly did not expect that. Also bonds caught a bid today that is the exact oppositie of what should normally happen when the easy money is being taken away. It looks like a flight to safety play along with the US dollar but gold is not participating. The only thing that I can say for sure is that things are changing in the game. Plenty of work to do on the charts this weekend, however I am most likely heading to the sidelines until I get a handle on things. Both Europe and Asia were lower to close the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow continues to fall here as it dropped 210 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is now turning down. The Dow continues to underperform as the NASDAQ was up over 100 points today. For that reason I don't see the market about to fall into a major decline here. The summation index is now turning down but we haven't seen any downside gaps there yet. Both the Dow and the TRAN are oversold as well. The S&P 500 was off slightly. The Bollinger bands here have contracted to the point that we're about to see a big move in this index soon. As always, which way is the question. We'll know more as time goes on. Perhaps I was wrong about the impending summer doldrums. GE was off 3/8 and the volume was good. Gold got clobbered again as the futures dropped $38. The US dollar had a very strong day, while interest rates went lower. The XAU lost almost 9 points and GDX shed 1 7/8. Volume exploded to the downside. The gold shares had a gap lower at the open and never looked back. After looking over the charts again last night I decided to place an order for the GDX July calls. The gold shares are very oversold and at least due for a bounce or so I thought. The price I put in was so low I did not expect it to be filled. It was hit early this morning and the trade is a loser after todays price action. The stop loss order is in and will probably be filled tomorrow. There's plenty of time for this trade but I do not see an extended rally for gold or the gold shares in the near future. Not a lot of money in this idea thankfully but in hindsight I should have stuck with the original idea of heading to the sidelines. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today after bouncing around. The short term indicators are beginning to roll over which would imply higher stock prices going forward. I still think that we'll see some kind of bump up in prices either tomorrow or Monday according to some of the indicators that I'm looking at. We do have a very mixed market at the moment and I'm not exactly sure what that means going forward. Asia was generally lower and Europe barely higher overnight. We'll see how the option expiration goes tomorrow.

Fed angst would be the best way to describe todays market action as the Dow lost 265 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is starting to move sideways. We got a sharp sell off on the Fed announcement that actually really didn't say anything we didn't already know. Such is the emotional nature of the game sometimes. The Dow was the weakest component of the major averages. The overall market did finish up from the worst levels on the session. I don't think that we're in for a major decline just yet but I could be wrong. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over. Up trend lines do remain intact here and the S&P is still above the 50 day moving average. We'll see if we get any follow through to the downside tomorrow. GE was off a dime and volume picked up. Gold got slammed and broke through support at $1850. The August futures contract lost thirty bucks. Interest rates rose and the US dollar had a good day to the upside. The XAU lost 2 1/2, while GDX dropped over 3/4. Volume picked up to the downside. I sold my GDX June calls for a 95% loss. Another mismanaged trade without a stop loss order. I entered when GDX got oversold on a daily basis but unfortunately for me it simply remained that way. I'm tempted to go ahead and try the July calls there but will most likely head to the sidelines to regroup. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher and closed at its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators are now mid-range here. I do not think that the VIX is implying a huge downturn at the moment. It remains below the 20 level and that is bullish going forward if things remain that way. Only a couple of days left for the June option cycle. The Dow is pretty short term oversold right now and I would expect to see some upside in the next few days. Things have been pretty uneventful until today and it's possible that the summer doldrums will be in full gear after this week. Europe was higher and Asia lower in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The economic data came in mixed and the Dow fell 94 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still moving up. Inflation was a bit higher and retail sales a bit lower for todays reports. We'll see how the market reacts to whatever the Fed has to say tomorrow. The NASDAQ led the way lower today. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. I'm not sure exactly what to expect on Wednesday. Probably just hanging around until the Fed statement and the chairmans speech. GE was up a few cents and the volume remains light. Gold dropped $7 on the futures. Interest rates and the US dollar ended the day little changed. The XAU fell 2 1/3, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was light. The gold shares fared worse than gold today. The up trend line for GDX that has been in effect since April has been broken. My GDX June calls are big losers, probably over 90% when I close the trade out in the next couple of sessions. Even a big jump for gold tomorrow can't save this trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit again today and the short term technical indicators have turned higher. That doesn't mean that we'll see a big drop in the stock market tomorrow but it's possible. My thining is that for now the trend still remains up as the VIX is well below both its 50 day moving average and the important level of 20. As I sit here stuck in a losing trade, looking back it appears that this idea never got its footing from the beginning. There were a couple of times it could have eeked out a small profit but it never took off in the right direction as desired. Not having the stop loss order in added to final loss total. Hopefully the negative result here won't affect the next trade going forward. Asia mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow.

A mixed bag to begin option expiration week as the Dow fell 85 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues higher. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way. A last half hour push surged the S&P 500 to a new all time closing high. Continuing with the short term overbought technical condition for the S&P. We'll get economic data out tomorrow including an inflation report. Wednesday we'll hear from the Fed. So there are potential market moving events waiting in the wings. GE was off twenty cents on light volume. Gold continues to sell off as the futures dropped a dozen but they did finish up from the lows of the session. Interst rates were higher and the dollar ended little changed. The XAU fell a point, while GDX lost 1/4. Volume was light. The gold shares continue to outperfrom the metal itself and that's a plus going forward. But I don't think that it will help my GDX June calls with only four days to go. They are solid losers and unless there is a dramaic turnaround from the Fed announcement they'll end up losing 90% or more. The positive technical picture of the 50 day passing through the 200 day moving average just isn't panning out as expected. After getting burned with the stop loss order on my last trade, I didn't use one for this idea. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and the short term indicators are trying to turn back up. Still comfortably below the 50 day moving average on the VIX. For now we'll wait and see how the market reacts to tomorrows data. Europe and Asia finished generally higher although some of the Asian markets for closed for holiday. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

We closed out the week on a whimper as the Dow rose 13 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving up. Listless trading throughout the day as summertime has come early to Wall street. A buying push in the final half hour led to the gains. The overall market continues to perform better than the Dow and that's a plus if you're long. Another new all time high for the S&P 500 and there is no overhead resistance. We do remain short term overbought for the S&P and the light volume isn't exactly encouraging. Option expiration week alnog with the Fed on tap for next week. GE was up a few cents and the volume was light. Gold did not follow through yesterdays gains and the futures dropped over twenty bucks. The US dollar had a good session but interest rates remained unchanged. The XAU fell 2 2/3, while GDX lost 2/3. Volume was light. My GDX June calls moved back to solid losers. I probably should have just taken the loss today. GDX is back to the up trend line that began in the beginning of April. If that line holds the trade has a chance to get back to break even. If not it's a loser. The short term indicators here have rolled back over and that's not a good sign. With only five days left in the June option cycle, time is running out. Not sure if I can wait on the Fed until Wednesday but may have to. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower yet again today and remains below its 50 day moving average. The lack of volatility has led to what looks like 2 1/2 months of sideways activity for the S&P. We're hitting new all time highs here but it isn't exactly a huge breakout. I'm not sure how much longer that will go on. The market seems to be in slow motion. Plenty of things to think about while going over the charts this weekend. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to finish the overseas trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Once again it's not the data that comes out but the markets reaction to it. Inflation came in higher than expected but it eventually got shrugged off. The Dow managed a 19 point gain on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high and remains short term overbought. I'm guessing that we'll work our way upwards in the near term but I don't expect any kind of rip roaring rally. We did have some volatility today but in the end the bulls won out. After tomorrow option expiration week will be on tap along with the Fed. GE was off a dime and the volume was light. Gold was up ten bucks on the August contract as interest rates went lower despite an uptick in inflation. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU rose almost 4 points, while GDX gained almost a buck. Volume was close to average. The short term indicators for GDX are starting to turn back up. My GDX June calls have somehow turned around to a small profit again. With only six days to go in the June option cycle, the risk increases every day. However I do expect at least a little more upside due to the positive crossing of the moving averages. Plus the gold shares finally moved up with gold and that's a positive for the gold share bulls. Of course things could quickly change tomorrow in this game. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today after almost making it up to the 50 day moving average. Remaining short term oversold but the VIX can stay that way during rallies as it has in the past. What was pointing up here yesterday on the technicals is now pointing back down. However the TRAN continued lower today and I'm not exactly sure what to make of that. So we are getting some crosscurrents here. Asia was higher and Europe lower last night. We'll see how the week closes out tomorrow.

Hanging around today for the most part until the final hour which saw a sell off. The Dow lost 152 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still moving up. The overall market continues to fare better than the Dow and that gives the bulls some hope. Tomorrows inflation data will be the catalyst one way or the other unless this sideways malaise continues. The McClellan oscillator signal never panned out. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought but I still think that we are about to break out to a new all time high. If I'm wrong and what we have here is a double top, there's a long way down to go. The TRAN is moving lower now and is at its 50 day moving average. Perhaps that will contain the decline there. We simply have to wait for tomorrow and the market reaction. GE was off over 1/8 on about average volume. Gold fell a few bucks despite lower interest rates. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. My GDX June calls are now solid losers. Unless we see a decent move higher tomorrow, this trade will head for the loss column. The 50 day moving average broke through the 200 day to the upside today for GDX. It did not cause any buying. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was higher today due to the final hour sell off. The short term indicators here have now turned back up. It remains below its 50 day moving average though. More oversold than overbought for the VIX. Seven days to go in the June option cycle. It's been a pretty lackluster week so far for stocks. My guess is that will change tomorrow. I have no idea what the inflation data will say but the markets reaction to it is the important thing to keep an eye on. For now we'll wait. Europe and Asia were generally lower. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Up, down and back up today but overall not much progress as the Dow fell 30 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving up and because of that we'll maintain a bullish outlook going forward. The overall market finished a bit better than the Dow but it feels like we are simply marking time ahead of the inflation data due out on Thursday. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and stalling at new all time highs. There's a potential double top on the daily chart here but I'm still a believer in a breakout to the upside. The McClellan oscillator gave a signal yesterday for a big move within the next two sessions. If that signal is valid we'll see some kind of price movement tomorrow. GE finished flat on the session but did make it back from the lows. Gold lost $6 on the August contract. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates were slightly lower. The XAU fell about 2 1/4, while GDX lost over 1/2. Volume was light. The continuing underperformance of the gold shares is a problem for the bulls. It is also a problem for my GDX June calls as they are now showing a loss. Getting short term oversold for GDX but it will have to start moving higher for the June call trade to work. The 50 day moving average should cross through the 200 day to the upside tomorrow for GDX. Whether or not that translates into some buying is a guess at this point. The gold futures contract has a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern on its hourly chart. Or I could just be seeing things because I own some GDX calls. At this point it looks like I'll be hanging on to this trade into the inflation report. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished higher today after bouncing around. It remains oversold. I'm no longer considering the SPY June puts ahead of Thursdays report. One thing I don't like at the moment is the stagnant market atmosphere. It again feels like the early summer doldrums. Europe was mixed again with Asia generally lower. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Lower was the theme of the day for the most part as the Dow fell 126 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. We were lower from the open and the Dow was the relative underperformer. The NASDAQ sported a gain and that is a plus for the bulls going forward. The S&P 500 had a small loss and remians short term overbought. We're still on the cusp here for a new all time closing high and my guess would be that we'll see it within the next couple of days. The market is in what seems to be a waiting period until Thursdays inflation report. GE was off a nickel and the volume was light. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and treasury yields were slightly higher. The XAU lost 3/4, while GDX was basically flat. Volume was light. Higher gold prices and no rise for the gold shares is not a good sign for the bulls here. My GDX June calls are still around break even but at this rate this isn't a trade to get married to. I really do not want to hold on to this trade until the inflation report comes out but I may have to. One of the reasons I'm still in this trade is the fact that on the daily chart, the 50 day moving avergae is about to cross the 200 day moving average to the upside. That is bullish and should create some buying there when it happens in the next couple of sessions. The only thing that could derail this is a sharp drop in the next couple of days. I don't see that happening but the market goes where it wants. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished flat today and remains short term oversold. If it just moves sideways this week the market should be fine. I have been considering getting some SPY June puts ahead of the inflation report. I'll wait and see what the next couple of days bring before deciding on that. My guess remains that we'll see a new all time closing high soon but after that who knows? Concentrating on the GDX for now. Europe and Asia were mixed to begin the trading week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The jobs report was a bit lighter than expected and the market liked what it saw. The Dow rose 179 points on average volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. We had an upside gap at the open for stcoks and traveled higher for the rest of the session. The overall market was stronger than the Dow, led by the NASDAQ. That bodes well for higher prices in the beginning of next week. The S&P 500 is this close to closing at a new all time high. Should make it there next week as it remains short term overbought. Once we get past the old high, there is no overhead resistance. The only warning sign today is that the volume was not as robust as it has been. GE was off 1/8 on average volume. Gold snapped back $21 today on the jobs report. The US dollar was lower and interest rates dropped as well. The XAU was up 2 1/8, while GDX added 1/2. Volume was light. Considering all the good news for gold today I would have expected better upside moves for the gold shares. My GDX June calls are showing a very small profit and I was tempted to just take it but I didn't. I should be out of this trade early next week unless an actual gold share rally takes place. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits an upside market day. Still short term oversold here and staying that way. During rallies the VIX can remain oversold for an extended length of time. I think that we're in one of those phases now. That said I may try the SPY June puts ahead of the inflation data next week if we simply continue higher from here. The NYA set a new all time high today but the TRAN was lower. All the major stock indices remain above their 50 day moving averages and certainly that is bullish. I'll be going over the charts this weekend to try and decipher a game plan to put in place next week. Asia traded mostly lower and Europe was higher to close out the week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It certainly wasn't a quiet session today as the market had a huge gap down to start the session. It spent the rest of the day battling back and the Dow finished with a loss of 23 points on the continues heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving up. The overall market was weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. That is not a good sign for the bulls. It also makes tomorrows reaction to the jobs report even more important than it might have been. If we are on the verge of a rollover here, the double top in the S&P 500 has a long way to go lower. But that hasn't happened yet and we'll know more after tomorrow hopefully. The S&P remains short term overbought. GE was up a penny on average volume. Gold got clobbered today as the futures dropped $37. The US dollar was up and so were interest rates. The XAU fell 5 3/4, while GDX lost 1 1/3 on good volume. The gold shares had a gap to the downside at the open as well and the recent consolidation there now appears to have been distribution. That doesn't bode well for my GDX June calls as the open order that I had out there was filled this morning. That trade stands now at around break even. I'll have to decide what to do with it at tomorrows open. Unless there's a dramatic turnaround it now appears that gold and the gold shares are headed lower. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished just slightly higher and remain short term oversold. Not getting a good feel one way or the other from this indicator at the moment. At this point it's just a matter of waiting for tomorrows market open and deciding where to go from there. There's still 2 weeks to go in the June option cycle but with todays sharp turnaround in gold and the gold shares, being on the long side there does not appear to be a good idea. We'll see how it goes tomorrow. Asia was generally higher and Europe mixed overnight. All eyes on the employment numbers Friday morning.

It seems like a market that is just hanging around as the Dow gained 25 points on heavy volume once again. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. Plenty of volume but not much movement spells either accumulation or distribution. Perhaps the market is just waiting for the jobs report. Whatever the case I cannot make up my mind for either the calls or the puts for the SPY. We remain short term overbought for the S&P 500 but the summation index is moving up. The TRAN was lower today, that may or may not mean something. The Robinhood crowd is back at it as AMC gained 100% today. That's surely a sign of speculation. I'll continue to watch what's going on in hopes of coming up with some type of near term strategy. GE was off a nickel and the volume was light. Gold was up $9 on the August contract. The US dollar was a bit higher, rates a bit lower. The XAU and GDX had minor fractional gains on very light volume. My open order for the June GDX calls remains The gold shares are atill short term overbought and staying that way. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a touch lower today and remains oversold. Not getting any help here as to the markets future direction. The beginning of June feels like the summar doldrums so far but that probably won't last. Something has to give sooner or later but I don't have a good feel for what's about to happen. Maybe tomorrow will help put things in focus. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines and take it from there.

We begin the month of June on a mixed note as the Dow gained 46 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trending higher. The Dow was up over 300 points in the first five minutes and spent the rest of the day selling off. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 finished the day with slight losses. The S&P remains short term overbought on the majority of its indicators. I'm not sure what is about to happen here with stocks but I hope to have a clearer picture before Fridays employment report. GE was up almost a dime and the volume was light. Gold was off $7 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU gained 1 2/3 but GDX only edged higher by 1/8. Volume was light. My open order for the GDX June calls remains out there. GDX also remains short term overbought and in a sideways trading channel. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bounced up today but remains below its 50 day moving average. Still oversold here but the VIX can stay that way for quite some time as it has in the past. If that's the case we'll see a rally at some point this week. But you can't really predict for certain what the indicators will do, hence my hesitation on taking a position in the SPY right now. Todays price action certainly wasn't bullish for the S&P by opening much higher and settling for a loss on the day. That's actually a one day reversal to the downside. I'm also not sure what the heavy volume today has in store for us going forward. So I'll be on the sidelines for the SPY for now and keep an eye on gold as we make our way through the week. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

A day of gains for the market during the final session in the month of May. The Dow rose 64 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to gain some traction to the upside. We were higher for much of the day but the market dropped in the last ten minutes with end of the month manuvering. The S&P 500 remains overbought and on the cusp of new all time highs. Provided there's no surprises over the long weekend, my guess is that we'll reach new ground early next week when trading resumes. GE was off 1/4 on averge volume. Digesting yesterdays stellar gains. Gold rose $8 on the futures as the US dollar finished little changed. Interest rates ticked lower. The XAU and GDX sported fractional gains on very light volume. My open order for the GDX June calls remains out there. Still short term overbought for GDX and I may cancel this order next week. Sideways movement for the gold shares while gold itself is rising is not exactly bullish. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was little changed after being lower on the day. Still oversold but remaining below 20 is bullish. Perhaps there's another short term SPY put trade coming up next week but I'll have to go over the charts this weekend to be certain. If we do hit new all time highs for the S&P next week there won't be any overhead resistance. Then a put trade would not be the right idea. I guess we'll see how the month of June begins and take it from there. Europe and Asia were both higher to finish the month. We'll take a break over the long weekend and be ready for the beginning of trading on Tuesday.

A mixed bag today as the Dow added 141 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving sideways. The Dow was the outperformer as the S&P 500 was only slightly higher and the NASDAQ had a tiny loss. Remaining short term overbought for the S&P on most of the indicators. Todays abnormally high volume might suggest that traders got their business done today to take advantage of the long weekend. If that's the case tomorrow should be pretty quiet. But we'll see. The S&P 500 is either in a stall before heading to new all time highs or forming some kind of double top. Time will tell. GE was up almost a buck on very heavy volume. Some good news on the jet engine orders was the catalyst there. The contracting Bollinger bands proved correct with the move being to the upside. Gold was up a buck and the US dollar finished little changed. Interest rates were higher today. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. I did place an open order for the GDX June calls and I'm leaving it out there. It will take a drop in GDX to get filled. At the rate things are going here, GDX isn't going to make it back to the break out point at 38. The sideways movement is either a consolidation before it moves higher or a distribution before it takes a drop. My thinking is that it's the former. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX has continued lower and now is short term oversold. My guess for now would be that the rally for stocks continues from here since the VIX just recently had a strong upside move in the beginning of the month. The VIX can stay oversold for a while at times. We'll see if this is one of those times. Asia was lower and Europe mixed last night. We'll close out the trading week and month before a holiday weekend tomorrow.

The Dow spent another day running in place as it gained 10 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still tracking sideways. The NASDAQ was a leader and that's a plus for the bulls. The TRAN and the Russell 2000 turned back around to the upside and that's a positive as well. The S&P 500 is working its way to short term overbought but isn't there just yet. We'll get some economic data in the next couple of days but we're heading into the end of the month and a holiday weekend. I don't have any SPY trades in mind at the moment. GE was up 1/4 and the volume remains light. Gold was off a few bucks on the August contract and the US dollar was higher. Rates were basically unchanged. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. I'm still considering the GDX June calls. Waiting for a move back to the breakout point at 38 but that may not occur. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower again today and is comfortably below the 20 level. Although short term oversold the VIX is implying that higher stock prices are on the way. We shall see. Perhaps new all time highs are not out of the question after all. Maybe I'll just let this week pass on by and take it from there. Asia was generally higher and Europe mixed overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Basically a day of hanging around as the Dow fell 81 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is back to a sideways trend. Yesterday I thought we would work our way up to new all time highs soon. Today, that doesn't seem to be so sure. My hope here is that things drift higher towards the end of the week and then I'll try the SPY June puts. The fact that we could not follow through on such a positive session yesterday is cause for concern. However if we storm ahead tomorrow with good gains, the picture will change again. Never any easy clues in this game. GE was off a few cents and the volume remains on the light side. Gold was up $18 on the August futures contract. The US dollar was slightly lower and rates dropped again. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. Gold up and the gold shares not doing anything is a negative. Perhaps we'll get lucky and GDX will drop back to the 38 level and give us a shot at the June calls. Gold and the gold shares remain short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a small bounce today but remains under the 20 level. Oversold on some of the short term indicators here but not completely. As long as the VIX remains below 20 we'll have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls. However the negative price action today in the TRAN and the Russell 2000 gives me cause to pause on the bullish case. Now this could just be some end of the month manuvering or it could be the canary in the coal mine. We'll simply have to see how the rest of the week shapes up. Asia was higher and Europe mixed last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Moving higher post expiration as the Dow gained 186 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is turning back up. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus for the bulls. It appears that the S&P 500 is now headed for new all time highs. The short term indicators there have turned back up. We did have some last hour selling but higher prices look like they are in the near future. A caveat would be the light volume as we don't trust light volume rallies. But we'll see how things go from here. GE was off a nickel on very light volume. The Bollinger bands here are getting as about as narrow as they can. That implies a big move is not far off. Gold was up half a dozen on the August contract, while the US dollar was slightly lower. Interest rates dropped as well. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on very light volume. I'm still interested in the GDX June calls if we ever see a pullback. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today and is now below the 20 level and beneath its 50 day moving average. This implies that higher stock prices are on the way. Not yet completely oversold here as well, so it appears the path of least resistance is higher for equity prices going forward. Now that could all change in a hurry but I doubt it at the moment. We had a sideways sell off and now it looks like stocks are ready to advance. The SPY option premiums are pricey though as we've just moved into the June option cycle. On the sidelines there for now. Europe and Asia were higher to begin the week. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

A pretty quiet and mixed expiration Friday as the Dow gained 123 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trying to turn around. Early buying today was followed by a drift lower for the rest of the session. The market is still trying to make up its mind what to do here. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 remain mid-range as things could go either way here. We're going into the June option cycle now and the premiums are high. I'm waiting for a decent signal one way or the other. GE was up over 1/8 and the volume remains light. Gold was up a few bucks on the August contract and the US dollar was slightly higher. Rates were little changed. The XAU was off a point, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was pretty light. We're still waiting for GDX to pull back to the breakout point of 38. Then and there we'll decide on trying the GDX June calls. Patience for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today and remains above the 20 level and right above its 200 day moving average. Movement in the VIX next week should tell us a lot about what the market is going to do. Not a lot of economic data due out next week and it's the end of the month. The 31st is a market holiday, so the long weekend effect will be on tap as well. It may not be the most exciting week of the year but the market can and often does surprise. I don't exactly have a good feel for what's going on right now and will try and wait for a valid signal before taking on the next trade. Plenty of charts to ponder over the weekend. Europe and Asia were generally higher to close out the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Back to the upside as the rally from yesterdays low continues. The Dow rose 188 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ was the leader and that's bullish. The problem is how much of the buying is for real and how much is options expiration related. Holding the 50 day moving averge was a plus for the S&P 500. The short term technical indicators here are now mid-range. Will the market continue to roll over here or are we going back to new all time highs? I'm still cautious but another upside day tomorrow could change my mind. GE was off a few cents and the volume was pretty light. Gold was up around $7 on the futures today. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained 2 points, while GDX rose 1/2. Volume was light. I'm still waiting for a return to the breakout level of 38 on GDX to try the June calls there. There's no hurry as we'll roll into the June option cycle on Monday. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but remains above the 20 threshold for now. I'm not getting a good feel for what this indicator is telling us at the moment. Staying above 20 does imply more volatility though. Unless we see a lot of selling tomorrow, the weekly charts for the major averages are pointing higher. Perhaps we'll see that blow off top after all. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. We'll see how expiration Friday goes tomorrow.

What looked like a market rout turned into just another day on Wall street as the Dow lost 164 points on average volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. We opened with a gap lower and the Dow was off almost 600 points at the worst levels. However buyers stepped in and we made our way higher for the rest of the session. The NASDAQ outperformed once again. The Dow did bounce off its 50 day moving average. Whether or not that holds going forward will tell us a lot. The S&P 500 also bounced off of the 50 day. Not yet completely oversold for the S&P but I do think things will hold up for the rest of expiration week. It's what happens after that I'm pondering. The Fed minutes came and went today. GE was up 1/8 on light volume. Gold finished flat today as interest rates were a bit higher. The US dollar was up as well. The XAU lost 3 1/3, while GDX dropped almost 2/3. Volume was pretty good as profits from the latest move were probably taken. The gold shares are due for a rest and we'll look to get some June GDX calls if they get to oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX climbed above its 200 day moving average today and then fell all the way back below it. The short term indicators have turned back up here and if they continue higher we'll see more selling. I'm just not sure that it will take place in the rest of this week. I am still in the negative camp going forward though. The S&P 500 has had a great run since March of 2020. However on the weekly chart the angles of ascent have been broadening out as we've moved higher. As the angles are broken, a new one forms. Sooner rather than later one of the broken angles will lead to a rollover to the downside in my opinion. We could be seeing that happening right now but time will tell on that. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Lower today as the Dow fell 267 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. We did get a signal from the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move within the next two sessions. Today takes care of that. It was pretty much a trendless day until the final two hours when the market started to drop. I was stopped out of my SPY May put trade in the morning for around a 30% loss. Had I not been stopped out the trade would now be showing a profit. Such is the nature of the game sometimes, especially in options expiration week. You can't afford the luxury of time. My guess is that we'll continue lower tomorrow but after that I can't say for sure. The NASDAQ was the better relative performer today and that isn't exactly bearish. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are mid-range and pointing down. That isn't exactly bullish. I'm still on the cautious side when it comes to stocks going forward. GE was off over 1/8 and the volume was pretty light. Gold was up a couple bucks as the US dollar was lower. Rates were up slightly. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. Waiting for a return to the 38 level for GDX in order to try the GDX June calls. Short term overbought on the gold shares any way you look at it. Mentally I'm feeling OK despite the trading loss today. Managed it properly and a small loss is better than a large one. The VIX was higher today and that fits the markets negative action. Back above the 20 level here and my guess would be some more near term volatility in store. I could be wrong. The usual positive expiration bias has not shwon up yet this week. We'll get some Fed meeting minutes tomorrow and that could be a market mover. Three days left in the may option cycle and I should stick to the sidelines. Asia was higher overnight, with the major averages in Europe little changed. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

It was pretty much a day of running in place as the Dow lost 54 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The market was lower at the open and then drifted with a positive bias for the rest of the session. My SPY May puts are still showing a small loss. There was point during the day where they sported a slight gain but I'm giving this trade another day or so. However there is a possibility that today was it for this idea. Not much in the way of data out this week. GE was off 1/8 on average volume. Gold continues its climb and the futures gained $28. The US dollar was slightly lower and rates were basically unchanged. The XAU was up 8 2/3, while GDX soared 1 7/8. Volume was heavy to the upside and GDX broke above the long term resistance at 38. Perhaps it will continue higher into the expiration on Friday. All we can do now is wait for a pullback back to the breakout point at 38 and purchase some calls there. No doubt overbought now for the gold shares but they could just continue higher. But we'll try and be patient for now and let this trade come back to us if it does. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today but finished well off of the highest point of the day. It also closed back below the 20 level which can be seen as bullish. We'll have to wait and see what happens here tomorrow. Only 4 days left in the May option cycle. If we don't see some selling tomorrow I will most likely get stopped out of the current SPY May put trade. So we'll see. I'm not feeling all that confident about turning a profit here after todays price action but you never know. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly lower to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The market powered back up today as the Dow gained 360 points today on average volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but is trying to turn around. The overall market fared even better than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way higher. That's bullish. The market has come back pretty far and pretty fast. I did purchase some of the SPY may puts today but I think this may be the wrong idea at this time. They are showing a small loss. I have the stop loss order already in and if the two day rally continues this trade will be stopped out. It looks like early Monday morning will decide the fate of this trade. GE was up 1/4 and the volume was light. Gold added another $16 on the June futures contract. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 4 3/8, while GDX gained 7/8. Volume was light. Perhaps I should have stuck with the GDX May call idea but the volume here isn't encouraging. GDX is also at longer term resistance at the 38 level. A break through this level with good volume will be the green light for the gold shares. GDX is currently overbought but not completely. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. The VIX was lower today closing both below its 50 day moving average and the important level of 20. Could the VIX be telling us the decline is over? Stay tuned. Such a strong snapback in stock prices over the past two days leads me to believe that perhaps we've seen all the selling for this time around. I'm not completely sold on that because the volume was nothing special today. However I cannot rule out the possibility with options expiration week on tap. The usual positive bias there would take my SPY May put trade to the losing ledger. Only a week left for the May options. I'll go over the charts this weekend and see what I can find. Europe and Asia were higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

An oversold bounce today as the Dow jumped 433 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving lower. Inflation data was a bit more than expected but the rally began at the market open. I do not think that the decline has ended but I could be wrong. That said, I am looking at the SPY May puts for a short term trade. Hopefully we'll see some more upside tomorrow to get short. As long as the summation index continues to go lower, expect price to follow. GE was up 1/8 on average volume. Gold was up over ten bucks on the June futures. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates dipped slightly. The XAU and GDX had fractional moves one way or the other on very light volume. I'm still considering the GDX May calls but time is running out. I might have to go out to the June contract as GDX does not quite have the price movement of the SPY. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that is a definate plus for the bulls. The short term indicators here are rolling over. Normally I'd be thinking that the SPY calls would be in order but the scope of this decline in such a short amount of time has me thinking otherwise. Now we have made it down to the 50 day moving averge for the SPY and bounced. SPY is short term oversold but not completely. That leads me to believe that we'll be heading back lower before the option expiration next Friday. I could be wrong but I'm looking for a spot to try the SPY May puts between now and then. Asia was lower and Europe mixed overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Selling was again the name of the game today as the Dow got slammed. The most watched index lost 681 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. I did put in another order for the SPY May puts but it wasn't filled. It looks like this trade was missed although we may get a chance if there's a snapback that fails. But the opportune time for this idea has passed. Inflation data was higher than expected and that will be the excuse for todays price action. However the negative RSI divergence for the S&P is a more plausable reason. Not yet completely short term oversold for the S&P but we are almost at the 50 day moving average and we got there in a hurry. If that doesn't reign things in the next support is at 395 for the SPY and 3950 for the S&P 500. It looks like the Russell 2000 is about to break down from a head and shoulders top. The NASDAQ is short term oversold and the double top there looks ominous. I'd still advise caution for purchasing stocks at this time. GE was off 1/4 and the volume was good. Gold fell $18 on the futures as the US dollar was higher and interest rates jumped. The fundamentals for gold are turning bearish. The XAU fell 3 1/2, while GDX was off 3/4. Volume was average. The gold shares remain more overbought than oversold here but I still think that they could move higher in the remaining time left for the May options. If and when the overall market bounces back, the gold shares should go with it. But the risk is much higher than it was a week ago. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up again today and has cleared its 200 day moving average. The short term indicators here are at the point where I'd expect an exhaustion of the near term selling, perhaps as early as tomorrow. That doesn't mean that we won't go lower as we move along here, it means that the near term push to go lower should abate. It also doesn't mean that it's time to step in and buy stocks again right away. The VIX climbing above the important 20 level says that volatility has returned to the marketplace and probably won't be going away anytime soon. More inflation data due out tomorrow. Asia was generally lower and Europe slightly higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The Dow got clobbered today as it fell 473 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is starting to head lower. The Dow was the weakest of the major indices. No real news to use as an excuse for the decline. The market is simply feeling heavy. The negative divergences that we saw are for real and expect lower prices going forward. That doesn't mean that we won't have some buying coming in. But it does mean use those times to look at the short side. i did place an overnight order for some SPY May puts but it wasn't close to getting filled. I'm leaving it out there in hopes we get some kind of snapback rally before heading lower again. There's only 8 days left in the May option cycle but if the decline is for real, it should last for over a week at least. GE was off 1/4 on average volume. Gold was up a buck or so after being sold off hard early on. The US dollar finished little changed as rated ticked up again. The XAU gained 2 3/8, while GDX added 1/4. Volume was light. The gold shares had a one day reversal to the upside as they opened much lower to begin the trading day. I also placed an overnight order for some GDX May calls that wasn't filled. I had two orders that I was thinking about and unfortunately chose the wrong one to put in. The other would have been filled and already show a nice profit as the gold shares are being bought at the moment. Overbought here to be sure but the market is in a peculiar spot right now. I've since canceled the GDX call trade and will probably focus on the SPY for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up again and touched its 200 day moving average. It also closed above the important level of 20. This probably means that volatility has returned unless we see a rally from here to new all time highs. I think that the probability of that happening is low. My best guess is that we'll see the SPY decline to its 50 day moving average at around 403 between now and expiration Friday on the 21st. That's why I'm trying to get some SPY puts as the strategy right now. We've got inflation data due out the next two trading sessions. This should provide reasons or excuses for movement in the markets near term. Europe and Asia were both lower as we are seeing selling around the globe. The market always knows more than we do. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

We saw numerous downside reversals today with many indices opening higher and closing lower. The Dow fell 35 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is tracking sideways. There is a potential negative RSI divergence for the S&P 500 on the daily chart. I was hoping for a blow off top for stocks but it looks like that isn't going to happen. I think that today marks a near term top. Whether or not it's a longer term top we'll only know as time goes by. I'll be looking to get some SPY May puts on any kind of move back up from here but it might already be too late. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way down here and that is bearish. My guess is that the negative RSI divergence for the S&P is for real and that lower prices are what's in store going forward. We'll see. GE was up a few cents on average volume. Gold rose $6 on the futures as the US dollar finished little changed. Rates ticked up slightly. The XAU dropped 1 1/2, while GDX was off a nickel on lighter volume. I think that the rally in the gold shares is due for a pause but I am still looking at the GDX May calls if we get oversold here in a hurry. If the overall market does move lower it should take the gold shares with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up and that certainly fits with todays market action. It is right back to its 50 day moving average and about to cross the threshold of 20 with another day like today. The VIX was looking bullish on the close Friday but now the picture has changed. I'd advise caution when it comes to purchasing stocks at this time. Asia was mixed and Europe relatively flat last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 229 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. New all time highs for many of the major stock indices including the S&P 500. The jobs report came in much weaker than expected but it did not matter. The market is simply going up until it doesn't. Getting short term overbought again for the S&P but it isn't all the way there yet. If we continue higher early next week, I'll be looking at the SPY May puts. But the easy money all around doesn't make that a longer term idea. GE was up almost a dime on light volume. Gold continued its run up as the futures gained $17. The US dollar was lower but rates ticked up for some reason. The XAU rose 2 1/2, while GDX added 2/3. Volume was good. Gold has now both broken through the resistance at $1800 and the long term down trend line that had been in effect for months. Any pullback would be a spot to get long. GDX has almost reached its long term down trend line at 38. It should make it through but perhaps a pause is in order before that happens. That would be the time to try the GDX calls there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a good decline today and that fits the markets action to the upside. Not yet short term oversold here so there's room to go higher in the near term for stocks. Staying below the 20 level for the VIX insures that the rally has legs. The VIX is saying that whatever selling there was is over for now. I will still look at the SPY May puts though for a short term trade if we get to short term overbought next week. However I may change my mind after going over the charts this weekend if I see something else. Plenty to ponder in the next couple of days. Foreign markets were generally higher to close the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Rallying ahead of the jobs report makes you wonder if the market knows something we don't. The Dow gained 316 points on OK volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues sideways. Even the NASDAQ was up today but not as much as the Dow. We got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move coming within the next two sessions. Todays price action takes care of that. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now turned back up. The tight Bollinger bands imply a big move and after today it appears that the move will be up. Perhaps even new all time highs for this index tomorrow. The Dow is leading the way here and that is usually a late stage of the rally event. Perhaps we will see a blow off top after all. GE was flat on average volume. Gold broke above the resistance at $1800 and closed up $28 on the June futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU jumped 5 3/4, while GDX gained 1 1/8. Volume was good. It looks like I've missed the opportunity for the GDX May call trade. GDX is not completely overbought yet but the best time to try the calls has passed. I might try to chase this move if we see some pullback but I don't think that will happen. Mentally I'm feeling a bit dissappointed. Of course you're not going to catch every trade that you look at but missing out always has you wondering. They say missed money is better than lost money but it certainly doesn't make you feel any better. There's always other trades though. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators here have rolled back over with plenty of room to go lower. That would support the next leg up in the current rally. That appears to be what is about to happen regardless of the employment report. But we'll have to wait and see what transpires tomorrow morning. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll close out the first trading week in May tomorrow.

Another mixed session as the Dow gained 97 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving sideways. Once again the NASDAQ was lower as the overall market just can't seem to get its act together one way or the other. I'm being patient with regards to the SPY as we still have the jobs report to digest on Friday. GE was up almost a dime on light volume. Gold was up about $9 on the futures and the US dollar finished basically unchanged. Rates were a bit lower. The XAU rose 1 1/2, while GDX edged higher by 1/3. Volume was light. I'm still considering the GDX May calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is also figuring out which way to go. My best guess here is that the market rallies on the jobs report Friday but that's still just a guess. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are about mid-range and the Bollinger bands are contracting. Some kind of move is going to happen soon in my view. The easy money hasn't gone away so I'm sticking with the bulls for now. I think that Friday may very well tell the story. It's a matter of whether or not to take a position before then. Asia was mixed but it's still a holiday for some there. Europe was higher. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

An interesting Tuesday as the Dow sold off early on comments from the Treasury secretary but then made it all the way back. The most watched index rose 19 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still tracking sideways. The Dow was about it as far as making it back into positive territory. The S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ were both lower on the session. The NASDAQ led the way down as the tech sector got sold off again. Not sure what that means but we are getting short term oversold there. However if the double top on the daily chart for the NASDAQ is for real, there will be a lot more downside to go. I'm staying on the sidelines with regards to the S&P for now. GE was off 1/3 and the volume was good. Gold fell $13 on the June futures as the US dollar was up. Rates dipped a bit. The XAU dropped 2 1/8, while GDX slid 1/3. Volume was light. The gold shares had an early rally but then fell off. I will say that the gold shares are acting OK here and I'm once again considering the May GDX calls. GOLD reports earnings tomorrow and I'm going to let that happen before deciding on whether or not to pursue this idea. The negative weekly candlestick pattern for GDX is also causing me some hesitation when it comes to making a call trade here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX climbed above 20 today but did close underneath that important level. It also dropped back below the 50 day moving average. Either today was the start of something big to the downside or the selling has concluded for now according to my interpretation of this indicator. We'll know more tomorrow but that's my best guess at the moment. We had a day like this last week when some tax jibber jabber caused some selling only to be followed by new all time highs days later. We'll know more in the coming days. Europe and Asia were generally lower, with parts of Asia still on a holiday. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The month of May begins with a gain for the Dow as it climbed 238 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still trending sideways. It wasn't off to the races though as the NASDAQ posted a loss for the day. We'll see if that means anything going forward. The S&P 500 closed off from the best levels of the day and remains overbought. Still dealing with earnings reports and awaiting the jobs numbers on Friday. GE was up 1/3 on average volume. Moving sideways here and waiting to see which way we go. Gold gained $24 on the June futures contract as both the US dollar and interest rates dropped. The XAU was up 6 1/2, while GDX added 1/3. Volume was good. It appears that I've missed the chance for the GDX May calls after todays price action. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and that fits with an up market. The short term indicators here have turned back down and that says that perhaps a rally is getting underway. If so we'll soon be seeing new all time highs for the major stock indices and perhaps the blow off top that I'm hoping for. The Bollingers bands are starting to level out now for the VIX but they still imply some type of big move in the near future. We'll be keeping an eye on it. Asia was lower with holidays closing some of the exchanges there. Europe was higher. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Lower to end the week and the month as the Dow fell 185 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to moving sideways. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to roll over but remain overbought. The market is still in a pattern of indecision in my view. We are about to enter a period of weak seasonality for stocks as the sell in May and go away crowd will get some air time. The potential double top is still there for the NASDAQ along with an elongated head and shoulders potential top for the Russell 2000. I'd still like to see some kind of blow off advance for stocks to get short but the market rarely cooperates with your best laid plans. We'll see how the beginning of May rolls out. GE was off a few cents on average volume. Bollinger bands still tight here. Gold was off five bucks as the US dollar was higher. Rates were slightly lower. The XAU fell 2 1/8, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume remains on the light side. Getting short term oversold now for GDX. I will consider the GDX May calls over the weekend. However the weekly candlestick chart for GDX has a bearish topping pattern on it after this weeks price action. That is something to consider as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and the short term indicators are now moving up. I still think the VIX could go either way here but it is now at the top of its Bollinger bands. If it falls back down from here perhaps we'll get the rally I'd like to see in order to try the May SPY puts. We're still below the 50 day moving average here and the important level of 20. Plenty of things to think about over the weekend while going over all the charts. Europe and Asia generally ended todays session in the red. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Up, down, up was the pattern as the Dow gained 240 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is now trending higher but not decidedly so. That basically means that it is moving up but without the robustness seen with other advances. That doesn't mean that things won't move higher going forward. It does mean that the rally is getting long in the tooth. GDP came in where expected and after a gap open we sold off into negative territory. However things turned around and back up we went. Still plenty of money to go around. GE was flat on average volume. Sitting on the 50 day moving average here. Gold was down $7 on the June contract and finished well above the lows for the session. The dollar was little changed and rates ticked up a bit. The XAU was off 3 1/3, while GDX lost 2/3. Volume was average for lately. Not yet completely oversold for the gold shares. If we get there I'll most likely try the GDX May calls. HOLX got clobbered on its earnings report, losing over 6 points on heavy volume. Obviously getting the calls there was the wrong idea. Thankfully my orders never got filled and I didn't make the trade at any price just to get in. You live and die by the sword trading earnings reports but the profits can be as spectacular as the losses. Trading the individual issues is much riskier than the indexes in my humble opinion. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up despite the gains in the stock market today. That doesn't fit. It did spike up to touch the upper Bollinger band. Those bands keep contracting and something big is brewing. The short term indicators there remain mid-range. End of the month trading on tap Friday, not sure which way we'll go. I'm still hoping to see a blow off top to get some May SPY puts. Europe lower and Asia higher last night. We'll close out the trading week and month tomorrow.

A quiet day until we heard from the Fed and then the market took off to the upside only to come right back down before the close. The Dow dropped 164 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to move higher but is basically still going sideways. The overall market was not as weak as the Dow. The first three days of this week have been sideways with light volume as the market is trying to decide what to do here. Still short term overbought for the S&P 500. I'm remaining in the bullish camp as nothing has changed to stop the flow of easy money just yet. We'll get 1st quarter GDP tomorrow. GE was off 1/4 on good volume. Gold was up $5 on the June futures and finished well above the lows of the session. The US dollar was lower and rates finished little changed. The XAU was up 1 1/2, while GDX rose over 1/8. Volume was light. GDX had a one day reversal to the upside as it opened lower and closed higher. Perhaps today was the time to try the GDX May calls. I placed another order for the HOLX May calls but it wasn't filled. I modified it near the end of the day but then simply canceled it as I was not going to get my price on what I was willing to risk on the calls. Earnings due out after the market closes. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was little changed again and the technical indicators are still mid-range. Bollinger bands are still contracting and a big move in the market is coming our way soon. I'm thinking a blow off top but that's just a guess on my part. GDP should be pretty good tomorrow and that should put the players in a buying mood. We'll have to wait and see. The market moves where it wants to. Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

In a holding pattern ahead of the Fed as the Dow was up a couple points on light volume. The advance/declines were barely negative. The summation index is still moving sideways. The overall market was a bit weaker than the Dow. My guess is that we'll be heading higher tomorrow as I'm not expecting any surprises from the Fed but you never know. Still short term overbought on the S&P 500. Earnings season continues. GE sold off early but came all the way back to be off a few cents on heavy volume. The Bollinger bands are very tight here now and a big move is coming one way or the other soon in GE. Gold was off five bucks on the futures as the US dollar finished little changed. Rates did move higher today ahead of the Fed. The XAU fell 2 7/8, while GDX shed 2/3. Volume was light. Waiting for oversold for the gold shares. The gold shares are starting to underperform here lately and that's a warning sign. I did place an open order for some HOLX May calls today. It wasn't filled. Earnings are due out tomorrow for HOLX after the bell. I may try to get the calls before the close Wednesday. More oversold than overbought for HOLX but this is strickly an earnings trade. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished little changed and the short term indicators are still mid-range. Bollinger bands beginning to contract here as well. But I'm still looking for higher stock prices going forward this week as there is no overhead resistance and earnings have weak last year numbers to beat. We should hear a dovish Fed tomorrow as the easy money flow hasn't stopped. So we'll see what happens. Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We begin the week mixed as the Dow fell 61 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still tracking sideways. The overall market was stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ as the outperformer. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 closed at new all time highs. There's no overhead resistance and as the earnings come in this week we should see further gains. We do have the Fed announcement on Wednesday to deal with but nothing new is expected there. 1st quarter GDP will come in on Thursday. So there are some potential market movers in the pipeline for this last week of April. GE was up a couple cents and the volume was heavy. Earnings due out here tomorrow. Gold rose three bucks as the US dollar finished little changed. Rates were little changed as well. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on very light volume. GDX remains overbought but not extremely so. I'm still waiting to see if we can get to oversold here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher today which doesn't fit with the mostly overall positive session for stocks today. The short term technical indicators here are mid-range. Not getting a clear signal here today on which way to go. However I'm still viewing last week as a consolidation before we move higher. So far so good but things can turn on a dime in this game. We'll see how the earnings coming out appear as I think we're in a just waiting on the Fed period for now. What the bulls don't want to see here is a roll over for the averages. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly higher in last nights trading action. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

It's been a back and forth week in the market and today it was back to the upside. The Dow gained 227 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving sideways as the market tries to figure out what to do here. The economy looks good and the earnings numbers are coming in strong. I'd expect new all time highs again next week. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought but in rallies it simply stays that way. This week looks like a consolidation before pushing on higher. There is no overhead resistance. The only caveat today was the light volume. GE was up 1/4 on light volume. Gold dropped $7 on the June contract despite a decent fall in the US dollar. That isn't a good sign for the bulls. Rates were slightly higher. The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional losses on very light volume. I'm still looking at the gold share calls if they get back to oversold. Hasn't happened yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX traveled back down today and the short term indicators have rolled back over. This implies higher stock prices going forward next week. I'm a believer in that also. We'll get the end of the month of April too and I do believe that new all time highs will be seen. There remains plenty of money around to lift stocks. We'll see what happens when we get to May. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend and might be trying trade in an individual stock ahead of its earnings in the beginning of May. More research must be done beforehand. Europe was a bit lower and Asia mixed overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Turnaround Thursday as we were heading up and then news of a higher capital gains tax rate roiled the markets. The Dow fell 321 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. The market is now trying to factor in exactly what kind of taxes it can expect to pay for whatever is next on the governments agenda. Needless to say that higher taxes on capital gains won't be a plus for stock investors. The details have yet to be determined but just the notion of higher taxes drove things lower today. It still has the feel of just a consolidation before moving higher but we'll see. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over. Tomorrow could give us a clue if we indeed continue lower. GE was up a few cents on average volume. Gold dropped ten bucks and the US dollar was slightly higher. Rates were little changed. The XAU lost 3 1/4, while GDX fell almost 2/3. Volume was light. Still overbought for the gold shares on a short term basis. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX popped back up which was interesting considering yesterdays drop. This still puts some more selling into play if it continues higher tomorrow. There is some room on the short term indicators to move higher into overbought territory. I think that the 20 level will contain any further rise in this indicator. If we move above there I might have to change my outlook. The NASDAQ along with the Russell are still hanging in there. The Bollinger bands on the Russell 2000 have contracted to the point where a major move one way or the other is coming. I'd keep an eye on that for clues as to what's about to happen here. With all the money sloshing around I wouldn't expect a huge decline but we'll let the market tell us where it wants to go. Europe and Asia finished higher last night. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Back to the upside as the Dow gained 316 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is beginning to track sideways. Gains all the way around as the selling has stopped for now. We'll probably hit new all time highs again soon. I'll be watching for any possible divergences when and if that happens. The other potential negatives with the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 don't look so potential after todays price action. GE was up about 1/4 and the volume was light. Gold gained $15 on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower. Rates were little changed. The XAU added 3 1/3, while GDX was up 2/3. Volume was light. Looks like we won't get a chance to jump on the gold bandwagon this time around. Overbought and staying that way. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX dropped today and that fits with todays price action. Unless we see a big down session tomorrow, the VIX should trend lower and stock prices trend higher. We're still in the good seasonal spot for equities but at the tail end. Perhaps a nice run higher into the end of the month and then the picture could change. Just a guess on my part there. Still plenty of earnings reports to sift through. Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Selling continued today but it wasn't a full scale race to the exits as the Dow lost 256 points on average volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now turning lower. The overall market was a bit weaker than the Dow. So some sellers have finally showed up but I don't think that this is the start of something big or long in duration. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over but we're still in overbought territory. I'm keeping an eye on the Russell 2000 here as it could be the canary in the coal mine if it breaks down. Hasn't happened yet and as always the market will go where it wants. GE was off 3/8 and volume picked up a little. Gold bounced back $6 on the June futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and rates were slightly lower. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. Overbought for the gold shares and I'll wait for some type of pullback before attempting the May GDX calls. Gold is now finding a bid and the tone of this market has changed. I'm a believer in the long side here but we may not get a chance to get back in. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped again but has so far stayed below 20. There is still some room on the short term indicators to go higher here which would mean some more selling in the near term. We'll see if that actually happens. Still plenty of earnings reports to digest and the comparisons have to be better than last years coronavirus numbers. Staying patient on the trade front for now. Europe and Asia were generally lower. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A bit of selling today as the Dow fell 123 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to stall now. The negative price action that we saw today was the opposite of Fridays expiration. That usually happens on the Monday after expiration either way. The NASDAQ led the way lower. I'm not expecting a downturn here and we'll probably hit new all time highs again later in the week. That's my best guess at the moment. GE was up a few cents and the volume was light. Gold lost about ten bucks on the June contract and the US dollar was lower as well. Interest rates went up slightly. The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was light. We're still overbought on the gold shares. With an extra week in the May option cycle, there's plenty of time to let a long side trade work itself into the picture here. I am looking at the GDX May calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX popped up today but finished well off of the highs for the session. We are still oversold here on a short and medium term basis. For the bears out there, I'd keep an eye on the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000. The former may be forming a double top on the daily basis chart. The latter perhaps a complex head and shoulders top. It's just something to keep an eye on. As long as the summation index keeps moving higher, the bulls are in charge. Asia was higher and Europe mixed to begin the trading week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

We closed the week on a high note as the Dow gained 164 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive and the summation index continues higher. More new all time highs abound as the market has no sellers. Extended, overbought and whatever else you want to call it but the market keeps chugging along. Not sure how much longer it will go on like this but it's usually longer than you think. The S&P 500 is getting pretty far away from its 50 day and 50 week moving averages but that doesn't mean it can't continue. Not sure what to look for here, perhaps a high volume blow off top kind of day. However trying to guess when that will happen is probably a losing game. GE was off around 1/8 and the volume remains light. Gold was up about a dozen on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower. Rates ticked up a little today. The XAU rose a point, while GDX was up 1/3. Volume was light. GDX is right at the long term down trend line that has been in effect for months. Overbought short term now here as well. Some sideways to lower price action here would set us up for the May GDX calls in a perfect world. We're rolling into the May option cycle that has an extra week in it. The premiums are high as expected for now. However the May GDX calls appear to be the next trade in mind at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower yet again today and remains very oversold. This indicator is suggesting that the rally will live on though. We're in earnings season and the comparisons should be looking pretty good for most companies after the beginning of the pandemic at this time last year. We'll have to wait and see if the sell in May crowd shows up this year. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to try and come up with a near term game plan. Europe and Asia were higher as money is finding a home in stocks around the world. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

All time highs all around today as the Dow jumped 305 points on what now passes for average volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. Running up into option expiration and that was to be expected. No overhead resistance and the almost extreme overbought conditions remain. We are on our way to a top but where that will end up is the question. Starting to go straight up again and that never ends well. My belief is at some point the May SPY puts will be the place to be. But for now we'll enjoy the ride higher. We had strong economic data yet interest rates were lower and that doesn't fit. We'll see how long this rally can last and it's usually longer than you think. GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light. Gold took off to the upside as the futures gained $28. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU climbed six points, while GDX was up almost 1 1/2. Volume expanded to the upside and that is bullish. GDX is now almost at the long term resistance at 36 that goes back to when the most recent decline began. GDX is in a declining rectangle that started nine months ago. A break above 36 changes the picture if it occurs. I believe that it will. Any hesitation here for GDX is an excuse to try the May GDX calls in my view. It doesn't look like it will get back to completely oversold anytime soon. Of course I could be wrong but the volume today says that things are going to go higher for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and remains oversold. Yes, it seems like a broken record but the VIX is staying oversold as the overall market is staying overbought. This too can't go on forever but even if we get an expected pullback the VIX is saying that higher prices are in the future as well. As long as the VIX stays below 20 the trend will be up. Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trading action. We'll see how the options expiration goes tomorrow as we close out the trading week.

The Dow added 53 points on light volume today. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow as the mixed bag market continues. The NASDAQ led the way lower. Things were moving along nicely to the upside but then turned lower with two hours left in the session. Overdue for some selling but I'm not sure that this is the actual top. We're still overbought on all of the major stock averages as earnings season kicks in. GE was up 1/4 on what passes for average volume now. Gold dropped about $10 on the June futures contract. The US dollar was lower and rates ticked up slightly. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. The gold shares continue to perform well in spite of the recent weakness or sideways trend for gold itself. For me, that's a positive moving forward and I'm still looking at the GDX May calls if GDX can get to oversold. GDX has so far managed to stay above its 50 day moving average this time around. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up slightly today which fits the overall market but not the Dow. The short term technical indicators here are starting to turn up. If they do, we'll see some type of pullback but I wouldn't expect a rout and it hasn't happened yet. We could also just be on our merry way higher again tomorrow and the VIX indicators remain oversold as they have for weeks now. Two days to go in the April option cycle and we'll sit things out for now. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Once again a mixed picture on wall street as the Dow fell 66 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is trending higher. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way. The S&P 500 remains short and medium term overbought. It reached a new all time high today. I think that we are in the late stages of this rally now though. Things will probably trend up into the option expiration but after that, I don't think it will be so easy. Indicators are getting stretched to the point of breaking for the S&P. Going straight up the upper Bollinger band and moving further away from the 50 day moving average never ends well. I'm looking at the May SPY puts. GE was off over 1/8 and the volume remains light. Gold found a bid today and bounced back a dozen on the futures. Higher US inflation data was the reason given. The US dollar dropped and so did interest rates which didn't really fit with higher inflation. The XAU was up 2 1/4, while GDX gained almost 2/3. Volume was light. I'm looking at the GDX May calls if we get back to short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that coincides with the overall market but not the Dow. Oversold here for so long but that is a big plus for the bulls. The rally will live on as long as the VIX remains below 20. Tomorrow we'll get the Feds beige book and we'll see if we get some kind of market reaction to that. Looks like I'll simply remain on the sidelines for the rest of this week. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A little minor selling to start the week as the Dow fell 55 points on pretty light volume. The advance/declines were even. The summation index continues higher. Lack of volume means no interest but I still think that we'll head higher this option expiration week. The underlying overbought technical conditions persist for the major stock indices. However there is no overhead resistance and no selling of any consequence lately. GE was flat on the session and volume was light. Gold dropped a dozen today and the short term technical indicators are rolling over. Rates ticked up slightly while the US dollar was little changed. The XAU fell 3 points, GDX shed 3/4. Volume was light. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was just a bit higher today. It remains oversold and stuck there on the short term indicators. As long as the VIX remains below the 20 level, the bulls have the benefit of the doubt. With only 4 days to go in the April option cycle I'll most likely be on the sidelines this week. I have no SPY trades in mind at the moment. Europe and Asia were lower last night. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Sunday update: I mistakenly said that the Feds beige book was due out and reported this past Wednesday. The recent Fed policy meeting minutes were reported on Wednesday the 7th. The Feds beige book will be out this Wednesday the 14th.

Up, up and away as the Dow climbed 298 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. We witnessed a buying spree in the final hour. New all time highs on many indices with no overhead resistance. Remaining overbought on all time frames. This is beginning to feel like a runaway train or the speculative upside blowoff that I mentioned before. I continue to believe that things will run up into the April option expiration in a week. After that, who knows? There are no sellers at the moment but the light volume isn't something not to be concerned about. Not sure how high we'll go here but enjoy the ride. GE was up over 1/8 and volume picked up a little. Gold dropped but came off of the worst levels on the day. The June futures lost a dozen. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates ticked up. The gold shares held up rather well as the XAU shed 1/2, while GDX was flat. Volume was very light. The gold shares continue to outperform the precious metal and that is a plus. I did sell my GDX April calls but my exit wasn't very good. Still short term overbought for GDX but that doesn't mean that it can't go higher. I did not want to take the risk of holding them into next week. The profit was 240%. The weekly chart for GDX remains bullish and I'll wait for it to get short term oversold and then perhaps try the calls again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued lower and the oversold technical condition here remains the same. Comfortably below the 20 level on the VIX means the rally can last. But the market is beginning to feel a little frothy and going straight up never ends well. Still, you can't argue with price and stocks are being bid up. We'll see how things go next week. Plenty of charts to check this weekend. Asia was mixed again with Europe generally higher to finish out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Continuing higher as the Dow rose 57 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues to trend upwards. New all time highs for some of the major stock indices including the S&P 500. We remain short term overbought on most of the indexes and have been that way for quite some time. There appears to be no sellers. The Fed chairman spoke today and the market liked what it heard. Easy money will continue for as far as the eyes can see. It will end eventually but not anytime soon or so it seems. I'm still looking for a drift higher into the option expiration next week. GE was up a few cents and the volume was light. Golds rally continues as the June futures were up $17. The US dollar was lower and interest rates had a slight drop. The XAU was up 3 1/2, while GDX rose 7/8. Volume was light. Short term overbought for GDX and it is touching its upper Bollinger band. My time in the GDX April call trade is coming to the end. There's a chance that it goes higher from here but when I look at the technical indicators they're saying it's time to go. With any luck I'll be getting out of this trade tomorrow. It is still showing a decent profit. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains very oversold. Solidly below the 20 level, this indicator implies that the rally has plenty of room to run. The market can stay overbought longer than you think sometimes. I think that we're in one of those conditions at the moment. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

It seems as if the market is on hold here as the Dow gained 16 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving up. The Feds beige book was a non event. Chairman Powell is giving a speech tomorrow so we'll see if that gets things going. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought any way you look at it. The best case scenario for the bulls would be more sideways consolidation before heading higher again. I'm still a believer in more gains going into the April option expiration. GE was flat on the session and the volume remains light. Gold was off six bucks on the futures as the US dollar had a slight gain. Interest rates finished little changed. The XAU fell 2 1/3, while GDX lost 1/3. Volume was light. My GDX April calls lost some ground today and it could be time to sell them. Not completely overbought in the short term though so there may be another push higher. I'll give it some more thought tonight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and touched its lower Bollinger band. We've been short term oversold here for too long. I'm having a hard time trying to figure out what's going on with this indicator but I don't think that it is signaling a big decline is in the forecast. Some near term selling perhaps but not a debacle. That's my best guess at the moment here. Another fly in the oinment is that the NASDAQ hasn't made it back to new all time highs as the other major averages have. We'll keep an eye on that going forward as well. My near term focus remains on gold and the gold shares for the current GDX call trade. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

The rally took a break today as the Dow lost 96 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. As long as the summation index is moving up, the path of least resistance is higher. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. It is also above the upper Bollinger band which doesn't last that long. Perhaps we'll move sideways before heading to new all time highs again. The overall market wasn't as weak as the Dow and that's another plus for the bulls. We'll get the beige book tomorrow and perhaps that will get things moving one way or the other. A caveat here is the light volume. GE was off a few cents and the volume was pretty light. Gold was up over a dozen on the June contract as the US dollar conitnued lower. Interest rates dropped as well to help the precious metal. The XAU was up almost 2 1/2, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was light here as well. I would have liked to have seen the gold shares act a little better today. Getting short term overbought here but not all the way there yet. GDX has made it above its 50 day moving average again but it hasn't been able to stay above there for the past six months. My GDX April calls are still in the black with 8 days to go in this months option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was barely higher today and that fits with the small decline. We've been oversold here for a while now on the VIX and that won't last much longer I believe. Solidly below the 20 level though and as long as that's the case I don't see any major decline coming. Of course, I could be wrong. I still think that stocks are going to run up into the April option expiration. After that, we'll see. Most of the major stock averages are overbought on both the short and medium term. Thay usually stay that way during multi-week rallies. Asia was mixed with Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The market took off to the upside as the Dow gained 374 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. Stronger than expected job creation is the excuse for the rally. New all time highs in many of the major stock indices but not the small stocks yet. No overhead resistance and plenty of cash to go around. I'll look for the rally to continue into the April option expiration. Short term overbought and staying that way for the S&P 500. GE was up over 1/8 but the volume was pretty light. Gold finished little changed on the June futures despite a drop in the US dollar. The strong jobs report may have had something to do with that. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. The short term rally in the gold shares look like it could take a rest here. My GDX April calls are still showing a profit. I'm inclined to hold on to this trade for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a little today and that doesn't jibe with a market up over 300 points. Not sure what it means going forward. We're still well below the 20 level though and that supports higher prices going forward. Some econmic data due out this week and the Fed chairman will be speaking on Thursday. Interest rates ticked up higher today but it didn't affect the stock market this time. I'm still bullish for now but if we continue going straight up it could be the speculative blow off that leads to a decent decline. Hasn't happened yet but I'll be keeping an eye on things as usual. A lot of overseas markets were closed last night but what were open moved higher. We'll see if they follow todays US rally tonight.

Moving higher to begin the month of April as the Dow gained 171 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving up. The overall market was once again stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. New all time highs for the S&P 500 as the 4000 level was crossed. There doesn't seem to be anything in the way of higher prices going forward. The only drawback here is the light volume but it is a holiday week. The S&P remians short term overbought. My thinking is that prices could run up into the option expiration in two weeks but that isn't set in stone. For now we'll enjoy the ride. GE was up over 1/8 on light volume. Gold continues to bouce as the futures rose twenty bucks on the June contract. The US dollar was lower and interest rates took a step back. The XAU was up 5 1/2 to climb back above its 50 day moving average. GDX was up a little over a point on average volume. GDX is right at the 50 day moving average and getting above it would be a plus for the bulls. With a couple of brief exceptions, the 50 day has held prices in check for GDX for the past half a year at least. The short term technical indicators here have turned up. My GDX April calls are now showing a better profit. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped much lower today and now is well below the 20 level. This means that the rally is on. In general, when the VIX stays below 20 any decline will be brief and not turn into something more. This makes sense as the government is printing so much money that it has to find a home and the home will be stocks. The recent declines that we've seen are just bumps in the road as we travel higher. Europe and Asia were higher last night as spring has brought buying around the globe. Time for a long weekend in which I'll be checking the charts and getting in some relaxation. It's Thursday afternoon and time for a rest.