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Monday, June 14, 2021

A mixed bag to begin option expiration week as the Dow fell 85 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues higher. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way. A last half hour push surged the S&P 500 to a new all time closing high. Continuing with the short term overbought technical condition for the S&P. We'll get economic data out tomorrow including an inflation report. Wednesday we'll hear from the Fed. So there are potential market moving events waiting in the wings. GE was off twenty cents on light volume. Gold continues to sell off as the futures dropped a dozen but they did finish up from the lows of the session. Interst rates were higher and the dollar ended little changed. The XAU fell a point, while GDX lost 1/4. Volume was light. The gold shares continue to outperfrom the metal itself and that's a plus going forward. But I don't think that it will help my GDX June calls with only four days to go. They are solid losers and unless there is a dramaic turnaround from the Fed announcement they'll end up losing 90% or more. The positive technical picture of the 50 day passing through the 200 day moving average just isn't panning out as expected. After getting burned with the stop loss order on my last trade, I didn't use one for this idea. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and the short term indicators are trying to turn back up. Still comfortably below the 50 day moving average on the VIX. For now we'll wait and see how the market reacts to tomorrows data. Europe and Asia finished generally higher although some of the Asian markets for closed for holiday. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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