Thursday, June 17, 2021
The Dow continues to fall here as it dropped 210 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is now turning down. The Dow continues to underperform as the NASDAQ was up over 100 points today. For that reason I don't see the market about to fall into a major decline here. The summation index is now turning down but we haven't seen any downside gaps there yet. Both the Dow and the TRAN are oversold as well. The S&P 500 was off slightly. The Bollinger bands here have contracted to the point that we're about to see a big move in this index soon. As always, which way is the question. We'll know more as time goes on. Perhaps I was wrong about the impending summer doldrums. GE was off 3/8 and the volume was good. Gold got clobbered again as the futures dropped $38. The US dollar had a very strong day, while interest rates went lower. The XAU lost almost 9 points and GDX shed 1 7/8. Volume exploded to the downside. The gold shares had a gap lower at the open and never looked back. After looking over the charts again last night I decided to place an order for the GDX July calls. The gold shares are very oversold and at least due for a bounce or so I thought. The price I put in was so low I did not expect it to be filled. It was hit early this morning and the trade is a loser after todays price action. The stop loss order is in and will probably be filled tomorrow. There's plenty of time for this trade but I do not see an extended rally for gold or the gold shares in the near future. Not a lot of money in this idea thankfully but in hindsight I should have stuck with the original idea of heading to the sidelines. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today after bouncing around. The short term indicators are beginning to roll over which would imply higher stock prices going forward. I still think that we'll see some kind of bump up in prices either tomorrow or Monday according to some of the indicators that I'm looking at. We do have a very mixed market at the moment and I'm not exactly sure what that means going forward. Asia was generally lower and Europe barely higher overnight. We'll see how the option expiration goes tomorrow.
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