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Wednesday, June 23, 2021

Some late selling sent stocks lower and the Dow fell 71 points on pretty light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive again. The summation index is still trending lower. The NASDAQ finished higher again to record another new all time high. I'm looking at the July SPY puts for now as I'm inclined to follow the summation index cues. I'd prefer to purchase them at the beginning of next week but the market may not cooperate. The light volume on the way back up here isn't convincing me that this rally has a lot of legs. GE was off a few cents and the volume remains light. Gold was off around $5 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates ticked up. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses lower and one day downside reversals. I'm not considering the GDX calls right now even though we are short term oversold. That idea didn't work last week and it seems as though GDX will remain oversold for now which usually isn't the case. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower again today and made it all the way down to the lower Bollinger band before bouncing back. The short term indicators are getting oversold. If the VIX can hang around lower for a couple of more sessions perhaps my SPY put idea could work. However another issue that we have here for the markets is that summer is upon us. Sometimes things can really slow down and the market goes on vacation. Perhaps that's the reason for the light volume that we've seen this week. There is also still plenty of time in the July option cycle and the premiums are high. I'm watching and waiting for now. Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight news.

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