Tuesday, June 15, 2021
The economic data came in mixed and the Dow fell 94 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still moving up. Inflation was a bit higher and retail sales a bit lower for todays reports. We'll see how the market reacts to whatever the Fed has to say tomorrow. The NASDAQ led the way lower today. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. I'm not sure exactly what to expect on Wednesday. Probably just hanging around until the Fed statement and the chairmans speech. GE was up a few cents and the volume remains light. Gold dropped $7 on the futures. Interest rates and the US dollar ended the day little changed. The XAU fell 2 1/3, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was light. The gold shares fared worse than gold today. The up trend line for GDX that has been in effect since April has been broken. My GDX June calls are big losers, probably over 90% when I close the trade out in the next couple of sessions. Even a big jump for gold tomorrow can't save this trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit again today and the short term technical indicators have turned higher. That doesn't mean that we'll see a big drop in the stock market tomorrow but it's possible. My thining is that for now the trend still remains up as the VIX is well below both its 50 day moving average and the important level of 20. As I sit here stuck in a losing trade, looking back it appears that this idea never got its footing from the beginning. There were a couple of times it could have eeked out a small profit but it never took off in the right direction as desired. Not having the stop loss order in added to final loss total. Hopefully the negative result here won't affect the next trade going forward. Asia mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow.
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