Wednesday, June 16, 2021
Fed angst would be the best way to describe todays market action as the Dow lost 265 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is starting to move sideways. We got a sharp sell off on the Fed announcement that actually really didn't say anything we didn't already know. Such is the emotional nature of the game sometimes. The Dow was the weakest component of the major averages. The overall market did finish up from the worst levels on the session. I don't think that we're in for a major decline just yet but I could be wrong. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over. Up trend lines do remain intact here and the S&P is still above the 50 day moving average. We'll see if we get any follow through to the downside tomorrow. GE was off a dime and volume picked up. Gold got slammed and broke through support at $1850. The August futures contract lost thirty bucks. Interest rates rose and the US dollar had a good day to the upside. The XAU lost 2 1/2, while GDX dropped over 3/4. Volume picked up to the downside. I sold my GDX June calls for a 95% loss. Another mismanaged trade without a stop loss order. I entered when GDX got oversold on a daily basis but unfortunately for me it simply remained that way. I'm tempted to go ahead and try the July calls there but will most likely head to the sidelines to regroup. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher and closed at its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators are now mid-range here. I do not think that the VIX is implying a huge downturn at the moment. It remains below the 20 level and that is bullish going forward if things remain that way. Only a couple of days left for the June option cycle. The Dow is pretty short term oversold right now and I would expect to see some upside in the next few days. Things have been pretty uneventful until today and it's possible that the summer doldrums will be in full gear after this week. Europe was higher and Asia lower in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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