Monday, June 07, 2021
Lower was the theme of the day for the most part as the Dow fell 126 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. We were lower from the open and the Dow was the relative underperformer. The NASDAQ sported a gain and that is a plus for the bulls going forward. The S&P 500 had a small loss and remians short term overbought. We're still on the cusp here for a new all time closing high and my guess would be that we'll see it within the next couple of days. The market is in what seems to be a waiting period until Thursdays inflation report. GE was off a nickel and the volume was light. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and treasury yields were slightly higher. The XAU lost 3/4, while GDX was basically flat. Volume was light. Higher gold prices and no rise for the gold shares is not a good sign for the bulls here. My GDX June calls are still around break even but at this rate this isn't a trade to get married to. I really do not want to hold on to this trade until the inflation report comes out but I may have to. One of the reasons I'm still in this trade is the fact that on the daily chart, the 50 day moving avergae is about to cross the 200 day moving average to the upside. That is bullish and should create some buying there when it happens in the next couple of sessions. The only thing that could derail this is a sharp drop in the next couple of days. I don't see that happening but the market goes where it wants. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished flat today and remains short term oversold. If it just moves sideways this week the market should be fine. I have been considering getting some SPY June puts ahead of the inflation report. I'll wait and see what the next couple of days bring before deciding on that. My guess remains that we'll see a new all time closing high soon but after that who knows? Concentrating on the GDX for now. Europe and Asia were mixed to begin the trading week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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