Wednesday, June 30, 2021
Another mixed bag to finish off the month of June as the Dow gained 210 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trending lower. The S&P 500 managed a new all time high but the NASDAQ finished the day in the red. Most of the major stock indices remain short term overbought. I did place an open order for some SPY July puts and I'm leaving the order out there. I'm not exactly convinced that this is the right idea because I could also make a case for an upside blow off here. So I'll reconsider this attempt tonight. GE was up over 1/3 on OK volume. Gold bounced $8 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dropped. The XAU was up 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/3. Volume was light. This could be a bottom for the gold shares as they've been oversold for 3 weeks. However I'm looking elsewhere for the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today after attempting to move up. Still oversold and below 20 here. Plenty of complacency but that's not unusal for rallies. I'm expecting some inflows of liquidity tomorrow and then the wait for Friday. A holiday weekend is on tap so whatever needs to get done will get done in the next two days. I'll need to see some upside tomorrow for my put order to be filled but could change my mind overnight. I'm not expecting a major decline right now but some weakness to profit from. I could be wrong. If the market simply continues higher from here, I'll look at the puts again in the middle of next week. Europe was lower and Asia mixed overnight. We'll see how July starts out tomorrow.
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