Friday, June 18, 2021
It was a negative end to the week as the Dow was driven down 533 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower and we'll take our cues from that. Very oversold for the Dow and we haven't seen anything that resembles a bounce. I thought by now we would have seen something to the upside but the technical indicators just aren't working as usual. That's a sign of trouble despite the NASDAQ holding up rather well here. The S&P 500 just closed below its 50 day moving average. We're short term oversold here for the S&P but that may not mean anything. I think that the market is going through a fundamental change that the easy money faucet is starting to be turned off. However that is just a guess on my part as my trading lately has been miserable. GE was off another 1/4 on better than average volume. Gold was off five bucks on the futures as the US dollar continues its climb. Interest rates were lower. Gold is at a two year up trend line that if it breaks will mean much lower gold prices going forward. It looks ready to break it. A close below $1750 would seal the deal in my mind. The XAU lost almost 3 1/2, while GDX dropped over 3/4. Volume remains above average. The gold shares are underperforming and that's not a positive going forward. Here again we should have seen at least a bounce but only get more selling. My stop limit loss order got down to my price but nothing happened. This has occurred to me before. I canceled that order and simply got out at the market. It was a 50% loss and that was one ill timed trade that should not have been entered. Once again the technicals are not acting as they usually do. Mentally I'm reeling from two losing trades this week. Gold is probably dead on the long side for a while and I was slow to accept that. I also think that the overall market is rolling over here but the NASDAQ continues to hold on. That's generally bullish but nothing is working for me at the moment. The VIX bumped up above its 50 day moving average and closed above the 20 level. That's a warning going forward and I certainly did not expect that. Also bonds caught a bid today that is the exact oppositie of what should normally happen when the easy money is being taken away. It looks like a flight to safety play along with the US dollar but gold is not participating. The only thing that I can say for sure is that things are changing in the game. Plenty of work to do on the charts this weekend, however I am most likely heading to the sidelines until I get a handle on things. Both Europe and Asia were lower to close the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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