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Friday, June 04, 2021

The jobs report was a bit lighter than expected and the market liked what it saw. The Dow rose 179 points on average volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. We had an upside gap at the open for stcoks and traveled higher for the rest of the session. The overall market was stronger than the Dow, led by the NASDAQ. That bodes well for higher prices in the beginning of next week. The S&P 500 is this close to closing at a new all time high. Should make it there next week as it remains short term overbought. Once we get past the old high, there is no overhead resistance. The only warning sign today is that the volume was not as robust as it has been. GE was off 1/8 on average volume. Gold snapped back $21 today on the jobs report. The US dollar was lower and interest rates dropped as well. The XAU was up 2 1/8, while GDX added 1/2. Volume was light. Considering all the good news for gold today I would have expected better upside moves for the gold shares. My GDX June calls are showing a very small profit and I was tempted to just take it but I didn't. I should be out of this trade early next week unless an actual gold share rally takes place. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits an upside market day. Still short term oversold here and staying that way. During rallies the VIX can remain oversold for an extended length of time. I think that we're in one of those phases now. That said I may try the SPY June puts ahead of the inflation data next week if we simply continue higher from here. The NYA set a new all time high today but the TRAN was lower. All the major stock indices remain above their 50 day moving averages and certainly that is bullish. I'll be going over the charts this weekend to try and decipher a game plan to put in place next week. Asia traded mostly lower and Europe was higher to close out the week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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