Thursday, June 10, 2021
Once again it's not the data that comes out but the markets reaction to it. Inflation came in higher than expected but it eventually got shrugged off. The Dow managed a 19 point gain on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high and remains short term overbought. I'm guessing that we'll work our way upwards in the near term but I don't expect any kind of rip roaring rally. We did have some volatility today but in the end the bulls won out. After tomorrow option expiration week will be on tap along with the Fed. GE was off a dime and the volume was light. Gold was up ten bucks on the August contract as interest rates went lower despite an uptick in inflation. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU rose almost 4 points, while GDX gained almost a buck. Volume was close to average. The short term indicators for GDX are starting to turn back up. My GDX June calls have somehow turned around to a small profit again. With only six days to go in the June option cycle, the risk increases every day. However I do expect at least a little more upside due to the positive crossing of the moving averages. Plus the gold shares finally moved up with gold and that's a positive for the gold share bulls. Of course things could quickly change tomorrow in this game. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today after almost making it up to the 50 day moving average. Remaining short term oversold but the VIX can stay that way during rallies as it has in the past. What was pointing up here yesterday on the technicals is now pointing back down. However the TRAN continued lower today and I'm not exactly sure what to make of that. So we are getting some crosscurrents here. Asia was higher and Europe lower last night. We'll see how the week closes out tomorrow.
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