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Wednesday, June 09, 2021

Hanging around today for the most part until the final hour which saw a sell off. The Dow lost 152 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still moving up. The overall market continues to fare better than the Dow and that gives the bulls some hope. Tomorrows inflation data will be the catalyst one way or the other unless this sideways malaise continues. The McClellan oscillator signal never panned out. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought but I still think that we are about to break out to a new all time high. If I'm wrong and what we have here is a double top, there's a long way down to go. The TRAN is moving lower now and is at its 50 day moving average. Perhaps that will contain the decline there. We simply have to wait for tomorrow and the market reaction. GE was off over 1/8 on about average volume. Gold fell a few bucks despite lower interest rates. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. My GDX June calls are now solid losers. Unless we see a decent move higher tomorrow, this trade will head for the loss column. The 50 day moving average broke through the 200 day to the upside today for GDX. It did not cause any buying. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was higher today due to the final hour sell off. The short term indicators here have now turned back up. It remains below its 50 day moving average though. More oversold than overbought for the VIX. Seven days to go in the June option cycle. It's been a pretty lackluster week so far for stocks. My guess is that will change tomorrow. I have no idea what the inflation data will say but the markets reaction to it is the important thing to keep an eye on. For now we'll wait. Europe and Asia were generally lower. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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