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Monday, June 21, 2021

The Dow roared back to the upside today, climbing 586 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still tracking lower. Extremely oversold was the case for the Dow and some kind of upside has been expected, it just took a while to show up. The question now though is it for real? Sometimes the Monday after expiration Friday is the opposite of the price action on Friday just to get things back in place. The rest of the week will tell us what is really going on. The Dow was the outperformer today and with the relative strength of the NASDAQ perhaps the decline has ended. We will wait and see though. GE was up 3/8 on lighter volume. Gold finally bounced today as well, the futures rose $14. The US dollar was a bit weaker and interest rates rose slightly. The XAU was up 2 1/3, while GDX added 2/3. Volume was average. Still short term oversold for GDX on its daily chart. Gold itself is still holding above the $1750 level. I do however get the feeling that gold may be dead money to the upside for a while. The medium term indicators for gold and the gold shares have not reached an oversold level yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a big move lower and the short term indicators have now rolled back over. This does imply that we are perhaps at the beginning of some kind of rally here for stocks. I will wait and see though because it seems the fundamental picture is changing with regards to the easy money policies that have been in place for over a year now. The market was short term oversold and today we saw a much needed bounce. Where we go from here will answer a lot of questions. For all I know we may just break out to new all time highs in the near term. But I'm willing to wait and see what happens this week for now. After all I'm in no rush to do anything after last weeks losing trades. Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight. We've got the Fed chairman speaking to Congress tomorrow. We'll see if that turns out to be a market mover.

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