Wednesday, April 07, 2021
It seems as if the market is on hold here as the Dow gained 16 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving up. The Feds beige book was a non event. Chairman Powell is giving a speech tomorrow so we'll see if that gets things going. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought any way you look at it. The best case scenario for the bulls would be more sideways consolidation before heading higher again. I'm still a believer in more gains going into the April option expiration. GE was flat on the session and the volume remains light. Gold was off six bucks on the futures as the US dollar had a slight gain. Interest rates finished little changed. The XAU fell 2 1/3, while GDX lost 1/3. Volume was light. My GDX April calls lost some ground today and it could be time to sell them. Not completely overbought in the short term though so there may be another push higher. I'll give it some more thought tonight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and touched its lower Bollinger band. We've been short term oversold here for too long. I'm having a hard time trying to figure out what's going on with this indicator but I don't think that it is signaling a big decline is in the forecast. Some near term selling perhaps but not a debacle. That's my best guess at the moment here. Another fly in the oinment is that the NASDAQ hasn't made it back to new all time highs as the other major averages have. We'll keep an eye on that going forward as well. My near term focus remains on gold and the gold shares for the current GDX call trade. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.
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