Thursday, April 15, 2021
All time highs all around today as the Dow jumped 305 points on what now passes for average volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. Running up into option expiration and that was to be expected. No overhead resistance and the almost extreme overbought conditions remain. We are on our way to a top but where that will end up is the question. Starting to go straight up again and that never ends well. My belief is at some point the May SPY puts will be the place to be. But for now we'll enjoy the ride higher. We had strong economic data yet interest rates were lower and that doesn't fit. We'll see how long this rally can last and it's usually longer than you think. GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light. Gold took off to the upside as the futures gained $28. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU climbed six points, while GDX was up almost 1 1/2. Volume expanded to the upside and that is bullish. GDX is now almost at the long term resistance at 36 that goes back to when the most recent decline began. GDX is in a declining rectangle that started nine months ago. A break above 36 changes the picture if it occurs. I believe that it will. Any hesitation here for GDX is an excuse to try the May GDX calls in my view. It doesn't look like it will get back to completely oversold anytime soon. Of course I could be wrong but the volume today says that things are going to go higher for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and remains oversold. Yes, it seems like a broken record but the VIX is staying oversold as the overall market is staying overbought. This too can't go on forever but even if we get an expected pullback the VIX is saying that higher prices are in the future as well. As long as the VIX stays below 20 the trend will be up. Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trading action. We'll see how the options expiration goes tomorrow as we close out the trading week.
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