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Tuesday, April 20, 2021

Selling continued today but it wasn't a full scale race to the exits as the Dow lost 256 points on average volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now turning lower. The overall market was a bit weaker than the Dow. So some sellers have finally showed up but I don't think that this is the start of something big or long in duration. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over but we're still in overbought territory. I'm keeping an eye on the Russell 2000 here as it could be the canary in the coal mine if it breaks down. Hasn't happened yet and as always the market will go where it wants. GE was off 3/8 and volume picked up a little. Gold bounced back $6 on the June futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and rates were slightly lower. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. Overbought for the gold shares and I'll wait for some type of pullback before attempting the May GDX calls. Gold is now finding a bid and the tone of this market has changed. I'm a believer in the long side here but we may not get a chance to get back in. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped again but has so far stayed below 20. There is still some room on the short term indicators to go higher here which would mean some more selling in the near term. We'll see if that actually happens. Still plenty of earnings reports to digest and the comparisons have to be better than last years coronavirus numbers. Staying patient on the trade front for now. Europe and Asia were generally lower. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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