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Wednesday, April 14, 2021

The Dow added 53 points on light volume today. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow as the mixed bag market continues. The NASDAQ led the way lower. Things were moving along nicely to the upside but then turned lower with two hours left in the session. Overdue for some selling but I'm not sure that this is the actual top. We're still overbought on all of the major stock averages as earnings season kicks in. GE was up 1/4 on what passes for average volume now. Gold dropped about $10 on the June futures contract. The US dollar was lower and rates ticked up slightly. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. The gold shares continue to perform well in spite of the recent weakness or sideways trend for gold itself. For me, that's a positive moving forward and I'm still looking at the GDX May calls if GDX can get to oversold. GDX has so far managed to stay above its 50 day moving average this time around. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up slightly today which fits the overall market but not the Dow. The short term technical indicators here are starting to turn up. If they do, we'll see some type of pullback but I wouldn't expect a rout and it hasn't happened yet. We could also just be on our merry way higher again tomorrow and the VIX indicators remain oversold as they have for weeks now. Two days to go in the April option cycle and we'll sit things out for now. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

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